UFC on ESPN 23: Reyes vs. Prochazka

Date: Saturday, May 1
Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+): 3:00 LP.net / 7pm PST / 10pm EST
Preliminary Card (ESPN2/ESPN+): 23:59 LP.net / 4pm PST / 7pm EST
Live Streams: http://ripple.stream/mmastreams




Main Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Dominick Reyes (12-2) vs. Jiri Prochazka (27-3-1) (Light Heavyweight)
Cub Swanson (27-11) vs. Giga Chikadze (12-2) (Featherweight)
Ion Cutelaba (15-6) vs. Dustin Jacoby (14-5) (Light Heavyweight)
Sean Strickland (22-3) vs. Krzysztof Jotko (22-4) (Middleweight)
Merab Dvalishvili (12-4) vs. Cody Stamann (19-3-1) (Bantamweight)
Poliana Botelho (8-3) vs. Luana Carolina (6-2) (Women's Flyweight)

Preliminary Card (ESPN2/ESPN+)

Randa Markos (10-10-1) vs. Luana Pinheiro (8-1) (Women's Strawweight)
Kai Kamaka III (8-3) vs. T.J. Brown (14-8) (Featherweight)
Loma Lookboonmee (5-2) vs. Sam Hughes (5-2) (Women's Strawweight)
Luke Sanders (13-4) vs. Felipe Colares (9-2) (Featherweight)
Andreas Michailidis (12-4) vs. KB Bhullar (8-1) (Middleweight)

Other

- Gavin Tucker was briefly linked to a bout with Cub Swanson at the event. However, Tucker was tabbed as a short notice replacement to face Dan Ige at UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Muhammad instead. Giga Chikadze replaced Tucker on March 3.
- A women's strawweight bout between Ji Yeon Kim and Poliana Botelho was scheduled for the preliminary portion of the card. However, Kim pulled out of the fight on March 22 citing injury and was replaced by Mayra Bueno Silva. Botelho then suffered another opponent change as Bueno suffered a back injury in late March. On March 31, Luana Carolina was announced as her new opponent.
- T.J. Laramie and Damon Jackson were expected to meet in a featherweight bout at the event. However in late March, Laramie pulled out of the fight due to undisclosed reasons and was replaced by Luke Sanders. On April 22, it was Jackson that pulled out due to an injury. Journey Newson, who was expected to face Felipe Colares in a bantamweight bout, also pulled out due to injury. The promotion decided to match Sanders and Corales as a result of those removals on April 22.
- A light heavyweight bout between Ion Cutelaba and Devin Clark was scheduled for the event. However, Clark pulled out from the event citing an injury and was replaced by Dustin Jacoby on April 20.

My bets thus far:

• Jiri Prochazka -120 $360 for $300
• Giga Chikadze -150 $75 for $50
• Benitez ITD +115 $20 for $23
• Dvalishvili decision -115 $115 for $100
• Dustin Jacoby +110 $100 for $110
• Jacoby/Cutelaba O1½ +100 $30 for $30
• Parlay: Strickland, Dvalishvili $500 for $574

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First impression of the match-ups:

• Prochazka > Reyes
• Chikadze > Swanson
• Jacoby > Cutelaba
• Strickland > Jotko
• Dvalishvili > Stamann
• Botelho > Carolina
• Markos vs. Pinheiro (dunno)
• Benitez > Pearce
• Kamaka vs. Brown (dunno)
• Lookboonmee > Hughes
• Sanders vs. Colares (dunno)
• Michailidis > Bhullar

I like TJ Brown as the underdog here considering that he swtiched camps to Glory MMA. I think we're going better cardio and a fighting similar to Colby Covington.

I'll follow you on Benitez ITD.

On April 30 2021 03:07 captainhook wrote: I like TJ Brown as the underdog here considering that he swtiched camps to Glory MMA. I think we're going better cardio and a fighting similar to Colby Covington. I'll follow you on Benitez ITD.

What do you think of Cutelaba vs Jacoby under 1.5 at -117 after that face off?

On May 01 2021 05:43 captainhook wrote: What do you think of Cutelaba vs Jacoby under 1.5 at -117 after that face off?

I think it will still go the same way I expected it to before the face-off:

• Cutelaba always goes hard in Round 1.
• He always gets in his opponents face during every face-off, with the hope of rattling them and/or getting into their head somehow that might throw them off their original game plan.
• Jacoby is way more technical when it comes to striking, and he's taller and longer.
• Jacoby already went into this fight being confident he'd win, but now he's determined to not lose to Cutelaba by any means necessary. This means he won't rush into Round 1 and get into a brawl like Cutelaba wants him to. Instead, Jacoby will be much more determined to keep his distance and pick Cutelaba apart until he gasses, which is after Round 1 is over, then he'll put on the pressure and get a TKO in late Round 2 or in Round 3.
• Jacoby can also get a TKO in Round 1, it just depends on how aggressive Cutelaba is. Cutelaba might try to use his wrestling that he used to use because he is facing a pure striker, but he knows that using his wrestling will drain his cardio a lot, especially if he struggles to get a TD or is unable to get a TD altogether.
• Either way, I am not worried about Jacoby. He trains with a good team, and they will have talked about this fight more after the face-off, and will have planned for a safe opening so Jacoby's skill will get him the win against an aggressive brawler who is easy to hit.

I currently have $100 on Jacoby +110, and $50 on Jacoby +130. After the weigh-in, Jacoby's line went to +130 and then quickly got bet down to +105 once videos started surfacing of the face-off. Now Jacoby's line is back to +115, which is around what it was before the face-off.

I forgot to answer your original question about the Total: I still feel fine with my Over 1.5 at +100. The fight can easily end U1.5, but I think the fight will at least start Round 2, unless Cutelaba hasn't learned anything from his last 2 fights in a row where he got TKO'ed by Magomed Ankalaev in early Round 1 and late Round 1.

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I did a little digging into their records:

• Cutelaba has 15 wins. 13 of his 15 wins ended in Round 1. 1 of his 15 wins ended 29 seconds into Round 2, and he has 1 decision win.
• Cutelaba has 6 losses. 5 losses ITD, and 1 loss via decision.
• Jacoby's record is skewed because he started his pro career in 2010, but then he took almost 4.5 years off from MMA to go fight in Glory Kickboxing, and returned to MMA in mid-2019.

So yeah, this could end in Round 1, but you are hoping Cutelaba fights reckless and either lands something big early, or gets countered. I think he might've learned from his last 2 losses against a striker who is similar to Jacoby in technical abilities and height/reach, and Cutelaba is 1-3 in his last 4 fights and needs a win, which makes me think he will try to use his wrestling against a taller guy who is a pure striker. Wrestling will get Cutelaba tired, and I assume he'll get finished in late R2 or sometime in R3.

Will fade Lona vs someone decent

Two underdogs won now. Stamman could be the third?

On May 02 2021 01:03 captainhook wrote: Two underdogs won now. Stamman could be the third?

What does Sanders and Botelho losing have anything to do with Stamann?

Sanders and Botelho are known for weak cardio, especially Sanders, and their bad cardio is why they lost the fight after Round 1.

Merab has great cardio, and Stamann is the one who slows down sometimes. Merab will be making Stamann work the entire fight.

Some people just have bad cardio. Its genetic with Brown

On May 02 2021 01:16 captainhook wrote: Some people just have bad cardio. Its genetic with Brown

I can't believe he won the decision... fucking robbery.

On May 02 2021 01:38 PuertoRican wrote: Show nested quote + On May 02 2021 01:16 captainhook wrote: Some people just have bad cardio. Its genetic with Brown I can't believe he won the decision... fucking robbery.

Cant complain. Won the bet lol.

Beautiful fight between these two wrestlers

On May 02 2021 02:25 captainhook wrote: Beautiful fight between these two wrestlers

Yeah. Much better fight than I expected. I thought there would be a lot of staring, but it was mostly action in this fight with strikes and wrestling.

Taking under 1.5 rounds here.

Lost. But what a fight!