Live & Deepstacked - Overplayed 2pair

The hand as it was played:

I'm playin 1/2 NL live, with $370 in front of me.
This hand mainly involves me and the pf raiser, who was sitting with about $500 in front of him. Solid player, hadnt seen him play anything worse than AQ all night, but I never saw him make a big laydown. He lots a couple big pots with high pocket pairs.

I get dealt 7c 8c in mid position, 2 limpers before me. I flat call, one more guy limps and then the button raises to $10. The guy on my right calls the raise, and I decide to call as well, and we go to the flop 3 handed.

Flop comes: 3d 7s 8s

First guy checks to me, i bet out $20 into a pot of ~37. Raiser thinks, for a second and calls, other dude folds.

Turn: Ks
I bet $70 into a pot of $77. Raiser looks unsure, thinks for awhile and then calls.

River: Qd

Totally unsure how to play this, I bet out $80. Raiser raises to $200. There is close to $500 in the pot at this point. I call.

Discussion:

My flop bet was definitely too small. shoulda made it 25 or 30. The intention was to induce a raise from an overpair, then take the pot down with a 3 bet.

The king on the turn was possibly the worst card in the deck. But I'm still thinking that an overpair is very likely, possibly with 1 spade, so I try to protect my hand from the redraw. Not sure what the best way to play this was.. but i'm thinkin a bet of $55 woulda been fine.

After the turn I'd kinda put him on QsQx, so after the Q hit on the river I thought there was a strong chance I was behind. I should never have bet the river, check calling would have been much cheaper... but when he raised $120 and the pot was already close to $500 i felt like i had to call.

Result
He flipped over the nuts, AQs.

Overall, my flop bet size was questionable, but I definitely should've gotten away cheaper on the turn & river..

Opinions guys?

idk, after he calls the turn i'd probably check/fold the river. Or just know that if he looks unsure he has the nuts .

He's definitely not going away if you pot that flop.

your turn bet was off. by betting so much it made him feel there was no need to raise.... like you said hes a tight player so if you bet weaker say 40 hes probably not gonna try and bluff so if he reraises you can fold fairly easily and if he calls you know your probably ahead. Your river bet was even worse.... too many hands beat you to bet river especially with your read knowing the guy probably has a high pp could had QQ, KK. If you put him on QQ why on earth did you bet river and bet turn so aggressivly?

I would have checked reraised big on the flop.

Raise harder on flop definately. Flat call on the turn would leave me wondering what the hell to do as well but if I was going to bet the river it would have been higher.

1. id bet 25 on flop

2. turn Ks isnt a bad card for you
only thing youre legitamitely losing to now is KK AQs (unless he's capable of raising AJs JTs etc in position), but i bet a little less here, maybe 2/3 pot (although i understand you wanting to pot it, if he had something like AAs or something (where he feared you had a set and wanted to minimize pot)

3. river brings some other bad stuff, plus the fact that he flat called twice. i probably check call river

without reading what you/anybody said, i don't understand how you can call river
what raises you here that you beat?

Ya I dunno either. I was 90% sure I was beat, but i was getting 4:1... Seeing as i was leaving after anyway i shoulda just folded.

you were 90% sure and you were getting 4:1
do you see why this is a bad call?

Ya I do.

On March 19 2006 13:53 Fraser wrote: Ya I dunno either. I was 90% sure I was beat, but i was getting 4:1... Seeing as i was leaving after anyway i shoulda just folded.

No image considerations either cause i was leaving.

I think I have a big problem keeping a cool head in big pots like this.. especially live.

My though process shoulda been..
Turn: ok if he was on the draw he just made it. I wanna minimize my losses. But, I still need to bet in case hes on an overpair and just picked up the draw. Bet $55-60. Closer to pot size woulda been good had the turn been a brick... get paid by the overpair, and push out anything else.

River: Ok he flat called me on the turn, now theres a king and a queen on the board, and the flush draw made it. I'm probably behind here, so I need to minimize my losses without letting him steal the pot with a weaker hand. If I check and he pushes I have to fold. If he bets 100 I can call. 200 probably fold. Not a good time for a blocking bet because I'm just gonna pot commit myself further, and i'm behind vs KK, QQ and the flush draw.

I hate showing weakness ont he river with so much money in the pot...

What are your guy's criteria for checking the river in a situation like this? instead of a blocking bet, or a standard bet?

bet the flop bigger
and check the turn

Check the turn? really... then what? I'm gonna end up layin down vs JJ, QQ and AA arent I?

check call turn, check call river

I bet the flop a lot stronger (~33), I might check-raise sometimes (rarely) too if the button has a tendency to bet out here when it's checked to him.

I think people generally don't bet enough in multiway pots. So you bet 20 into a 37 pot. Lets say the button calls. Now the 3rd person is getting 4:1 to call so he might be willing to call with a lot of drawing hands. Take in mind that this is a rag flop with both straight and flush possibilities so if you bet a very likely caller would be someone drawing to something. Make him pay. Especially since you don't have position.

Also there is a mentality amongst players that raise pre-flop with premium hands that when they see you betting first on a flop like this they're thinking - "something is not right" and often raise. If you bet more they'll raise more in this situation.

You should check call the turn. This is hard to explain... It doesn't matter that it might seem like weakness at first. I would never put you on a flush after your strong turn bet. It doesn't seem like you want to get value. And you're often faced with a raise, which makes it problematic, but you're probably gonna call anyway. By betting out on the turn out of position you're not gaining anything. No value out of weaker hands, you often get raised by someone who hits the flush and you end up having to call anyway. And it's more likely that he will bluff when it's checked to him. And since you're calling his bet here you're happy about that.

On March 19 2006 15:40 Fraser wrote: River: Ok he flat called me on the turn, now theres a king and a queen on the board, and the flush draw made it. I'm probably behind here, so I need to minimize my losses without letting him steal the pot with a weaker hand. .

I really doubt that if he bets out strong here it will be a steal. Check call. Don't commit yourself further.

On March 19 2006 20:38 KasperC wrote: check call turn, check call river

I like it. Tomson explained it well. Your hand is basically strong enough to win a lot of showdowns (as of the turn) but not strong enough to bet and be happy about being raised. Flop bet should be a bit more, like has been said.

On the turn...

Think about this...if he already has the flush, you're WB and would like to save some money by playing a small pot. If he has just picked up a FD and now you check the turn, he's almost certainly gonna bet it, being the pfr and considering the pot now contains over 30xBB. So you're getting value out of just a FD/FD+overpair by checking anyway. In this case, you don't have to bet it.

If he does have some weird hand with a weak FD or something, or if in any case he takes a free card with a FD, that's fine. You easily fold to any real resistance if a fourth spade falls, so you save money losing there. This is very much a non-ideal outcome, but it's not all that bad.

So basically by checking the turn, you allow two possibilities:
1. he checks behind for a free card. this may or may not mean he's drawing to a flush. regardless, only another spade or a river raise are going to scare you.
2. he bets his hand, be it a draw or not, and you get value when it is a draw and at least you have 4 outs when it's a made flush. the stronger his bet here, the more likely he is to have KK imo, but you should never consider it a very likely holding because he didn't raise the flop.

And by betting out, you allow three possibilities:
1. he folds. obviously this is fine.
2. he calls, and indicates that he's much less likely to have a naked FD at this point. that is, if he calls he almost certainly has overpair+FD at least.
3. he raises, in which case you're apparently in trouble.

possibility (2) from checking is really good because of the way villain will play his possible hands in this spot. the risks involved in checking do not strongly suggest that checking is bad.

possibility (2) from betting out is not nearly as good as (2) from checking. plus, (3) from betting out sucks.

i dunno if that's just more confusing. but it all means that your goal, getting value from draws n such, is accomplished by checking even better than by betting. plus you don't incur some of the risks you run into by betting.

on the river, you're check/calling because he won't give you much money with a worse hand. but he will bluff with a busted draw, or semi-bluff with a busted draw + pair. he'll also bet any other hand he could have that has you beaten. but if you bet out, he will fold the busted draws or one-pairs.

i think there are two big points here:

1. winning a medium pot instead of a big pot in this situation is fine. don't knock the possibility that he'll check behind and you'll miss a value bet when you're uncertain of your hand's strength. note that with a flush here, like if you had bet the flop with 9sTs, you should be upset about missing a value bet somewhere.
2. there are more ways to get value out of draws than by betting. may be over-applying betting concepts from LHE in NLHE?

On March 19 2006 15:42 Fraser wrote: What are your guy's criteria for checking the river in a situation like this? instead of a blocking bet, or a standard bet?

i don't like blocking the river, almost ever. the reason is that people on the river are never drawing, so they are only...

1. folding to your bet
2. calling your bet
3. raising you for value
4. bluff-raising you

because your bet on the river is a blocking bet, you don't allow yourself to consider the probability of (4). you only figure that people are doing 1, 2, or 3. this does not get you a lot of value. also, a blocking bet serves as a tool for gaining information. on the river, you don't need information.

if you're going to play the river at all, check/call or value bet. value betting is different from blocking, because you allow for possibility (4) and sometimes you are coming back over the top or just calling the raise. now, you get a lot more value. hence the name .

check/calling the river is good because you have the following possibilities:

1. villain checks behind
2. villain bets a real hand
3. villain bluffs

in this case, villain checking behind is NEVER a disaster. if he does #2, you're going to call and win or call and minimize your losses. if he does #3, you're calling and winning. tons of value here too.

so if i feel like i'm crushing my opponent's hand range, i'm value betting. if i feel like i'm even with his hand range or maybe slightly behind, i'm check/calling. i'm never blocking the river.

nobody check raises the flop here??

Checkraising is a bad idea if there is a flush drawer.

And you'll probably get less money out of an overpair if you check/raise.

Yea and if he has an overpair a 3 on the turn screws you over too.

never check raise in that spot that's probably the worst thing you could do on that flop

I think check raising the flop is fine too, and check raise big since your two pairs are pretty fragile

Why check raise when any bet I make is gonna get raised by an overpair

Why would you assume an overpair? Also by check-raising if someone is drawing they're gonna have to pay a lot more (especially the guy out of position).

I'm not assuming an overpair, but if hes on a draw theres a good chance he'll just check behind. So vs the draw its better to bet out.

If hes got an overpair theres a good chance he'll raise me if i bet, and on this board i'm coming back over the top for sure. I probably make more money this way than I do check raising vs the overpair.

Seems to me like check raising is only better if he has nothing, no pair and no draw.

You can't generally say that the chance of him betting when it's checked to him is smaller than the chance of him raising your bet.

I'm not saying that cr is the way, but like I said I might do that occasionally.

On March 20 2006 10:02 Veg wrote: nobody check raises the flop here??

with a flush draw on board and let them get a free card, NEVER