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Calling 3bets for set mining at mid-stakes - Page 2

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ggplz   Sweden. Jan 17 2008 13:36. Posts 16784

yes but i don't want to be break even with sets, i want to actually win money with them.

if poker is dangerous to them i would rank sports betting as a Kodiak grizzly bear who smells blood after you just threw a javelin into his cub - RaiNKhAN 

tomson    Poland. Jan 17 2008 13:43. Posts 1982


  On January 17 2008 12:36 ggplz wrote:
yes but i don't want to be break even with sets, i want to actually win money with them.


Aren't we greedy?

Peace of mind cant be bought. 

DooMeR   United States. Jan 17 2008 13:53. Posts 8562

its almost always -EV to call for set value especialy against a GOOD tag player that although might be tight still 3bets light. So really please everyone keep doing it to me because im making so much money off morons haha +_+

I just saved a bunch of money on my car insurance, by running away from the scene of an accident. 

[vital]Myth    United States. Jan 17 2008 14:34. Posts 12159


  On January 17 2008 01:56 sniderstyle wrote:
sthief09 from deucescracked had a good analysis of this situation

If you know your opponent has AA KK QQ and wif you do flop a set, you will get the money in.

There are three outcomes

You flop a set and win: This will happen 9.8% of the time netting you +209$.
EV = 209 *.098 = +20.482$

You flop a set + lose: This will happen 2.2% of the time netting you -193$
EV = -193 *.022 = -4.25$

You don't flop a set: This will happen 88% of the time netting you -19$
EV = -19 * .88 = -16.72$

Total EV: 20.482 - 4.25 - 16.72 = -.49$


So even if you know your opponent is going to stack off in the 3 bet pot, it is still minus EV to call with a small pp to set mine.
And in todays games, you hae to have a REAL strong read for that.

wtf, did everyone miss this? end of thread.

Eh, I can go a few more orbits in life, before taxes blind me out - PoorUser 

 
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