Prop Bet 400 buy ins @25nl in 1 mo? - Page 18

On May 31 2008 03:26 Jelle wrote: Show nested quote + On May 29 2008 16:55 PplusAD wrote: he is ~ 1900 after 8 days which means he is still a good amount of 20 buy ins behind the shedule and add to that the disappointment he must be feeling and also the original boost of enthusiasm and energy u get at the start of the bet is gone now, and i already thought it was a really hard bet to start with so yeah i really think rider is in bad shape for this bet

considering that he lost money for 3 days straight and then went on a 40 buyin heater hes probably feeling pretty good atm

Baal seriously.....

You offered him worse odds, when the bet was 5 days in, when the guy was on a 30k breakeven, after 120k hands. Then when we bring this up you offer the same odds WCGrider offered BEFORE the bet started. Can you not add up what isn't right here? Come on man, I had a little more faith in you seeing as how you are a mod and a winning MSNL player.

the way i see it playing this many hands everyday will simply make it extremely hard for him to make it. if say the bet was like for a 6 month period almost any succesful midstakes FR grinder could pull it off. time constraints will be the biggest hurdle for him, coz he MUST make x amount in a gambling game. it's easy to compute the math blah blah blah winrate 5ptbb over 400k hands. easier said than done coz i dont think anyone's ever done that in a month's time for god's sake. imo his odds are fair that he has got like a 40% chance of making it so i understand why it's so stupid to take up that bet against rider.
and once all the hype is over and ppl dont give a shit about the bet and he's all alone there playing 15k hands of microstakes everyday it gets pretty sick and prone to make anyone tilt, he's been tilting a bit as of late whining about some beats too.

presently -500 vs schedule and +250 in equity


update:

800 behind! yay!

On May 31 2008 11:06 BigRed0000 wrote: Baal seriously..... You offered him worse odds, when the bet was 5 days in, when the guy was on a 30k breakeven, after 120k hands. Then when we bring this up you offer the same odds WCGrider offered BEFORE the bet started. Can you not add up what isn't right here? Come on man, I had a little more faith in you seeing as how you are a mod and a winning MSNL player.

i realize that, sadly i were too slow to take a share in this bet, i didnt offer worse odds because i wanted to because i was unaware of the odds ratio that was set on 2+2, i would have definitlly taken the original bet in the blink of an eye.

Basically what im saying is that Daut was wrong saying we are stupid for betting against him and this proves it, he can be stubborn about it and say it would be EV+ to be for him but he nos realizes its much closer than he tought because he were understimating the winning ratio of 24 tables plus exhaustion.

So basically i asked is to either Daut apologizing for calling us idiots, or go proud and take a clearly EV- bet... both are fine to me.

if he is on or ahead of pace i will 10000000% take 2.5:1 odds

if he is behind i will not. if it were still at the beginning of the contest i would auto take the bet, the reason i need him to be ahead now is because his winrate is garbage so far and the amount he is playing so far in the bet makes me think he might burn himself out trying to play so much when he is not a big enough winner to be able to pace himself

and yes anyone betting against a mid-high stakes 24 tabler who has no soul and is giving 2.5:1 IS AN IDIOT

there i said it again. no apologies

oh and tomson, i think it should be between 7-10 and standard deviation around 25. its full ring and youre playing a really nitty style i dont think the std is very high.

sorry im responding all at once but i havent been online in about 4 days

and also, giving me 2.5:1 is not stupid because my stamina is no where near how much most peoples are

i have a huge winrate there but for me putting in those hours is really really hard

Hm WCGrider doesnt update blog anymore ?

Hes tired maybe?

On June 01 2008 01:46 PplusAD wrote: Hm WCGrider doesnt update blog anymore ?

think his db messed up

On June 01 2008 06:56 F4Zi wrote: Show nested quote + On June 01 2008 01:46 PplusAD wrote: Hm WCGrider doesnt update blog anymore ? think his db messed up

hes down and just fired up a couple tables an hour ago. hes playing atm

tried this for two days and i think im close to being dead now. up 20bi but major props to this guy for doing this everyday.

any new results ?

So you dont apologize when the evidence points that you were the idiot, instead you call us idiots again, and you also back out of the bet you offered of you playing mmm.. nice, nice.

He said he'd do the bet of him playing if he had >100k in action.

well i think hes behind by a couple hundred only. he needs a heater just to keep up with schedule. i dunno about what he says about 1k days being doable. maybe if he hits one he can go and keep up pace, but i srsly doubt he can surpass the daily req by a huge margin. so it's pressure pressure pressure up to the end.

kid yamamoto.. seriously

hes been playing at pretty much the worst hours (i use worst very lightly) for the 25 nl tables. He is switching his sleep sched and playing sched. to start getting in the most hands at peak PS hrs. So that will probably help.

WCGRider is pretty much back on track, wanna bet Daut? pm me. im up to 1.5k