Prop Bet 400 buy ins @25nl in 1 mo? - Page 19

nope,he's still behind

like i said he has to be ahead at this point for me to bet based on how much hes played and his winrates so far. hes playing so many hands and it isnt enough. im very confident this is not a hard bet for any good player who can put in lots of hands but i guess him being a "5/10 player" blinded me to the fact that he might just suck at poker.

honestly im not really about hustling people but i think giving me 2.5-1 is a pure hustle on my part. i was winning over 7ptbb at 1/2 when i 20 tabled over a not very big sample (25-30k hands), but it was enough to convince me that i was at least a 4ptbb winner at 1/2, which would probably make me like an 8-10ptbb winner at least at .1/.25 nl. that means id have to play about half of the hands everyone was estimating this guy would have to play. if it turns out he has to play well over 600k hands because he is running bad slash not a good player then he probably doesnt have much of a chance. i still stand by the fact that its a bad bet in general because i dont think relying on someone running bad who can play 600k hands is going to happen 70% of the time

just checked and it seems he's like 3 days behind already or something, not sure about actual figures though, but i think this is close to being over coz even if he gets a heater after being down another 5 days, heaters dont give you 100bi in a day just to keep pace and he still has to avoid breakeven stretches after that.

On June 03 2008 08:43 Daut wrote: like i said he has to be ahead at this point for me to bet based on how much hes played and his winrates so far. hes playing so many hands and it isnt enough. im very confident this is not a hard bet for any good player who can put in lots of hands but i guess him being a "5/10 player" blinded me to the fact that he might just suck at poker. honestly im not really about hustling people but i think giving me 2.5-1 is a pure hustle on my part. i was winning over 7ptbb at 1/2 when i 20 tabled over a not very big sample (25-30k hands), but it was enough to convince me that i was at least a 4ptbb winner at 1/2, which would probably make me like an 8-10ptbb winner at least at .1/.25 nl. that means id have to play about half of the hands everyone was estimating this guy would have to play. if it turns out he has to play well over 600k hands because he is running bad slash not a good player then he probably doesnt have much of a chance. i still stand by the fact that its a bad bet in general because i dont think relying on someone running bad who can play 600k hands is going to happen 70% of the time

i really dont think you can get 8ptbb/100 while 24 tabling, and i think you are underplaying the huge exhaustion factor.


Personally i would bet against you not because or i dont think u wont reach the winrate, but i believe that even with a 100k propbet i dont think you would be able to pull what WCGRider is doing, its insane, i dont think i have the discipline to do that and well 100k is a lot of money even for you but its not life changing so i dont think u could pull it off, and im absolutely assuming with not much information but well i would put 1 or 2k on it :3, anyway the bet is not happening.

The thing is, you were wrong, we were right, u were stupid and we were genius weeeeeeeeeee

he is 40 buy-ins behind teh pace after 12 days and i guess he wont make it

Today was interesting you know. I played about 12k hands earlier for about - 2 bi. Then i decided to go get a coffee. You know something outside of poker. So i went over to starbucks and got a mint mocha frappucinno and a brownie. Then i just sat outside. And the sun started setting, and there was actually a breeze going. Not to common here, but it was really nice. And I was the only one out there, just sitting there enjoying a coffee, and then I took a step back, and things were all of a sudden totally different. For the past 2 weeks, every single day has been a battle. I wake up fighting, i go to sleep under the pressure of the next day. Its always a fight, its a constant battle against this challenge. There are only three numbers in my life. What day of the challenge is it, What is my total, and what is pace. And every day all i do is fight. Every day im tired. Every day im hungry. But it doesnt matter, i mean lifes a funny thing. 3 months ago, I dropped out of school. It was fairly impromptu, and after driving across the country, my roll was 3k. lol yes, three thousand. And i was going to grind nl 25 for $500 a day every day. Made like 500 the first day and decided to take a shot at nl 100. Well, long story short i am probably like +60k or something since then, in the brief time since going pro. I spent a bunch, have some in savings, still have a roll, and escrowed off 20k. Sort of lol i suppose, what a weird world. As i sit here at my computer mindlessly grinding out a $18 hourly trying to make it to 10k, the world goes by. And I sat there, I hadnt shaved for a few days Down to my last few clean clothes Hadnt showered in a day or two, I just watched the sun set over the mountains. I have no idea what my future is, no clue what even tomorrow brings. But i will never stop fighting. Because win or lose, I am a grinder today, and a legend forever.

hm i think he starts to realize that there is a good chance he will lose

He seems to be pretty fucked up......

what a donk hahah

He's starting to become delusional. GG.

stupid prop bet imho. i feel stupid getting worried the first few days, but it was really about him being honest and try not to avoid cheating coz i felt some hands were like chip dumping already, so far i think the guy's integrity is solid so far ship 200

On June 04 2008 07:26 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On June 03 2008 08:43 Daut wrote: like i said he has to be ahead at this point for me to bet based on how much hes played and his winrates so far. hes playing so many hands and it isnt enough. im very confident this is not a hard bet for any good player who can put in lots of hands but i guess him being a "5/10 player" blinded me to the fact that he might just suck at poker. honestly im not really about hustling people but i think giving me 2.5-1 is a pure hustle on my part. i was winning over 7ptbb at 1/2 when i 20 tabled over a not very big sample (25-30k hands), but it was enough to convince me that i was at least a 4ptbb winner at 1/2, which would probably make me like an 8-10ptbb winner at least at .1/.25 nl. that means id have to play about half of the hands everyone was estimating this guy would have to play. if it turns out he has to play well over 600k hands because he is running bad slash not a good player then he probably doesnt have much of a chance. i still stand by the fact that its a bad bet in general because i dont think relying on someone running bad who can play 600k hands is going to happen 70% of the time i really dont think you can get 8ptbb/100 while 24 tabling, and i think you are underplaying the huge exhaustion factor. Personally i would bet against you not because or i dont think u wont reach the winrate, but i believe that even with a 100k propbet i dont think you would be able to pull what WCGRider is doing, its insane, i dont think i have the discipline to do that and well 100k is a lot of money even for you but its not life changing so i dont think u could pull it off, and im absolutely assuming with not much information but well i would put 1 or 2k on it :3, anyway the bet is not happening. The thing is, you were wrong, we were right, u were stupid and we were genius weeeeeeeeeee

you are totally underestimating my skill level.

and playing 3 or 4 2-3 hour sessions per day is not really that hard. that is totally pacing yourself. i honestly think (and i believe i am being conservative with these estimates) i can play 1500 hands an hour (21 tabling) and win on avg 2 buyins an hour. 6 hours a day would get me 360 buyins. 8 would get me 480 buyins. playing 8 hours a day with 100k on the line seems very doable, at least more than 28% of the time. 2.5:1 seems really bad, i would never give a good player who knows how to mass table 2.5:1

does anyone else envision a STD med commercial while WCG writes? i mean if you switch out a few key words, you have the script for one of those commercials

wow, that blog entry is depressing. but a good read anyway.

On June 04 2008 10:41 Bigbobm wrote: does anyone else envision a STD med commercial while WCG writes? i mean if you switch out a few key words, you have the script for one of those commercials

rofl yeah totally. Like when they are hiking or riding bikes or white water rafting and talking to the camera about how genital herpes wont slow them down, and that's why they take valtrex. haha gold.

wow he seems fucked up

he sounds like he's gone a little crazy

ew he probably smells... A LOT

yeah i think this bet isnt hard for a good fr player

unfortunately for me wcgrider is a donk

for so far the record of this kind of challenge is 0:2

On June 04 2008 09:29 Daut wrote: you are totally underestimating my skill level.

lol i somehow find this almost signature worthy

If wcgrinder loses this bet, I think that it is totally realistic for daut to get 100K worth of action on the same bet. All the people who bet against wcgrinder will feel even more sure and at 2.5:1, you need 40K worth of action.

Also factor in the intangible benefit of being a legend. Bigballs toss user --> WPT champion --> Immortal legend grinder!