Prop Bet 400 buy ins @25nl in 1 mo? - Page 24

from WCG Rider's blog:

3) My sleeping was absolutely terrible during this. Actually, for the first week, it wasnt even sleeping. Id lay down for about3-4 hours and then get back up because i just plain and simple could not sleep. Every day, couldnt sleep. It relaly starts to get to you and it started to wear on me very hard.

that's what i mean.. such a hard bet

I am pretty sure I wouldnt bet against ElkY on this one. I am not sure about betting against Daut.

And I am pretty sure I couldnt make it even if someone offered me like free 50k if I make.

I would bet against Daut, but not vs ElkY. Acctually I would bet against about anybody except Radiohead/ElkY on this one

i would bet against anyone def. money is all i lose in the end if i do. but it's fucking soooo entertaining to watch someone under pressure do this. hell even patrick antonious, sbrugby has losing months, how the hell can someone predict "next month ill earn this and that". 25nl is shit easy, but add the pressure to win exactly x amount each day, long hours will drive anyone crazy. and all the bettors against him have to do is check updates everyday, play relaxed poker and talk shit in the forums just to break his spirit, and rally negative public opinion it's def worth risking/losing a couple grand at least

On June 14 2008 07:45 VanDerMeyde wrote: I would bet against Daut, but not vs ElkY. Acctually I would bet against about anybody except Radiohead/ElkY on this one

so i come out and say i think im 95% to make it and you would still bet against me?

theres a reason a lot of you are not big winning poker players.

that reason is ?

sucking at odds calculation probably heh

curious whether you'll do it though ^^

On June 14 2008 12:17 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On June 14 2008 07:45 VanDerMeyde wrote: I would bet against Daut, but not vs ElkY. Acctually I would bet against about anybody except Radiohead/ElkY on this one so i come out and say i think im 95% to make it and you would still bet against me? theres a reason a lot of you are not big winning poker players.

actually complete it before trash talking plz

one thing is that you say you are 95% to win it, another is if you are actually 95% to win

I would love to see the bet though, we need some entertainment here on LP

On June 14 2008 13:26 bigbb33 wrote: Show nested quote + On June 14 2008 12:17 Daut wrote:   On June 14 2008 07:45 VanDerMeyde wrote: I would bet against Daut, but not vs ElkY. Acctually I would bet against about anybody except Radiohead/ElkY on this one so i come out and say i think im 95% to make it and you would still bet against me? theres a reason a lot of you are not big winning poker players. actually complete it before trash talking plz

i am doing you guys a favor by saying dont bet against me but you all try to blatantly ignore it. try to call me an asshole but the fact remains im doing you a huge favor by saying this. if you want to bet against me fine it will be a losing bet. i would like to have time to do this because it will be the easiest money ive ever made

i mean this is so lol

i am really one of the most humble non confrontational people on this forum. when i am confident i am able to do something and you guys just ignore it and woul bet against me and call me an arrogant asshole its just so insanely stupid.

its just like in poker. people play hands faceu p and you ignore them because you are too stubborn to realize some things are losing propositions. just believe me this would be very easy. i dont care if some scrub who cant manage his time couldnt do it. he was a model for how you dont approach this bet.

Your skills are most def not in question and you're most definitely one of the most admired, respected,skilled and successful players here. it's just the gargantuan task really, mathematically possible yes, humanly probable, no imho. oh well, what does a nit really know anyway, and im referring to myself obv Just keep us informed if ever you're ready and I'll gladly bet. it's really the entertainment im after really, coz money-wise it sux really to win like almost 1/3 of what you bet. I just miss going to justintv lol

see my point is im not one of the most skilled lp'ers. i guess one of is a relative term but i think at least 5 guys on this forum are better than me. when someone who isnt always confident in his abilities and grinds midstakes forever with a huge roll when he can probably play higher says he can do something with confidence you should probably believe it

but daut didn't you mention somewhere that you indeed have a huge winrate but that you don't have the stamina it takes to grind endless hours?

i decided it was best not to hustle people ive known for a long time. i was just saying certain things to try to get some action but thats not really very nice of me.

im being honest now. if i had any problems with stamina issues i would take adderoll and it would be cake

I love you too Daut. All I said was that I would bet against you any day in the week. I dont think you got what it takes. Nothing personal yo.

lmao at your quote

5% is goot enough for me

daut,

I really think that you shouldn't take the fact that people want to bet against you personally. I think very few people here doubt your skill, discipline, determination, and modesty. There really is no reason for both sides here to feel insulted when it all boils down to a difference in opinion.

And quite honestly, until daut or someone else does this bet, no one can really say that they are right, rather it is just an opinion. daut has proven to be a modest and realistic guy and if he is so sure, then that does weigh heavily IMO. However, the fact still remains that this feat has never been done and all who tried similar bets have failed miserably. So I can see why both sides would feel so strongly with their opinions. But I see no reason why differing opinions should cause such emotions in this situation.

Also, I have an additional thing to add to this discussion. With all due respect daut, 95% is an insanely high number and I just want to put things in perspective. A simple free throw is considered an incredibly easy feat for a professional. And even the best shooter in the history of mankind has been unable to accomplish that feat at 95%. Even the most dominated hand in poker preflop is over 10% to win. The most dominant teams in basketball win ~80% of their games and the most dominant teams in baseball win ~70% of their games.

I have the highest respect for you daut, but saying that you have a 95%+ chance of accompishing a feat that has never been done, that rational people bet over 40K giving 2.5-1 odds against is a bit optimistic.

i hope someday we can have like a nickname for ppl who hang out at liquidpoker aside from lpers coz it looks very strange. how about lepers? lol