Life-changing Variance - Page 2

On February 24 2009 00:27 TenBagger wrote: and with the first graph, it works out effectively as you flipped a coin 336 times, you lost 180 and you won 156. Definitely unlucky, but not that unlikely. In fact, I think the probability of that outcome is something like 18.5% so you can consider the cumulative result over the past 90K hands AIPF as a single lost overpair vs underpair.

Exactly what I was thinking, although the probability of losing 180+ flips out of 336 is 10.48%. (Handy binomial distribution calc: http://cnx.org/content/m11024/latest/#calc )

That's assuming you're flipping for $200 every time, which is certainly too high unless everyone buys in for full at 1/2. If the average flip is instead $150, it's 185 to 151, which is 3.58%. Much worse!

Your friend is an insane 1% to win at least that much with effective shoves of $400 (even luckier if the shoves are smaller).

Long run is loooooooooooooooong, and that's just based on a simple mathematical model of the most basic scenario possible. When you think about all the post-flop variables, trying to average out your long term EV to any reasonable confidence range is virtually impossible.

ah I didn't take the cumulative

i like to believe we create our own results.

but then again....

fwiw I just wanted to show an example of an opposite-direction graph (and whine a tiny bit ), not saying that my graph is OMG WORST RUN EVER bad or anything. The focus was the 2nd graph

But thanks for those stats ShadowDrgn

O_O ShadowDrgn awesome analysis, thanks

sick blog.
I quit.