NL100 turned bottom set

Villian is a 17/14/4 nit but has check/raised my cbet from 8 to 20 and folded to a shove 2 times as well. At this point I see him having a better set a whole lot of the time, JJ isn't in his range because he would 3bet this. For a 165bb with bottom set on this board what's our best action here?

Submitted by : gororokgororok

.PokerStars Game #25841407978: Holdem No Limit ($0.50/$1.00) - 2009/03/11 14:25:13 CET [2009/03/11 9:25:13 ET]
Table Hippo 6-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: martinpan ($14.45 in chips)
Seat 2: Don_TuCCE ($355.65 in chips)
Seat 3: earlybird007 ($48.20 in chips)
Seat 4: gororok ($165.20 in chips)
Seat 5: Blayhck ($114.05 in chips)
Seat 6: totti18n ($111.50 in chips)
Don_TuCCE: posts small blind $0.50
earlybird007 is disconnected
earlybird007 is connected
earlybird007: posts big blind $1

Holecards
Dealt to gororok
gororok: raises $2 to $3
Blayhck: calls $3
totti18n: folds
martinpan: folds
Don_TuCCE: calls $2.50
earlybird007: folds

Flop (Pot : $10.00)

   
Don_TuCCE: checks
gororok: checks
Blayhck: checks

Turn (Pot : $10.00)

   
Don_TuCCE: bets $7
gororok: raises $14 to $21
Blayhck: folds
Don_TuCCE: raises $29 to $50

ur line makes 0 sense and if hes smart enough to realize that and do something about it you can never fold.

I think "check/raised my cbet from 8 to 20 and folded to a shove 2 times" is very important. Granted he has a overset here a lot, but I've personally seen him get a bit feisty on several occasions so I think he is capable of making this move as a bluff or with a combo draw. Throw in the possibilty of J8 or 86 and I don't think you can find a fold here.

i probably have a skewed view from too much HU play, but I'll think for a bit and flat, and get it in on most rivers.

id call and c/c any river

On March 11 2009 14:46 TimDawg wrote: id call and c/c any river

I'm in position.

ok then call and call any river or shove if checked to

fwiw i dont generally give people at NL100 enough credit for hand-reading to get it in based on northface's justification. also I think there is an important difference between people c/ring flop cbets and bet/3betting the turn in a spot like this. I just dont think enough of his range is combo draws/pair + draw/pure bluff for anything except a turn fold to be profitable.

but I may be biased since I have seen results

only reason this is ever close is cuz its 100nl and therefore player dependent...200nl and higher this is a super easy ship...i guess with him being a nit call and reeval river but probably getting it in on most every river....i like timdawgs line cuz hes a 100nl nit but like northface for any higher stakes i this situtation occurs

On March 11 2009 08:54 n0rthf4ce wrote: ur line makes 0 sense and if hes smart enough to realize that and do something about it you can never fold.

overthinking 100nl imo, u have set, put the money in, profit.

agree with LilDeano89 but it feels really gay to fold here. probably call and call river (and if he checks its an easy vbet)

if you can add hands like j8s/68s in his range, then it's definitely a call. but i guess only you can answer that, how many hands does he coldcalls with in SB like this?

but i guess if he is that nitty, this is gonna be 66/88 so often, because even tough your line makes no sense, that is not something people pick up easily at these stakes (esp. not a nitty player like this), and i also doubt he will repop with good draws. so taking out some two pair combos your hand is pretty shitty against his range and a this become foldable.

baal no offence but i would like to know the last time you actually played NL100 on stars. We are not talking about a hand vs a fish, in which of course this is an easy ship. the villain here plays a tag/nit game and 99% of tags/nits at these stakes just simply aren't aggressive enough to be bluffing/semi-bluffing right here. There are no value hands in his range which we are ahead of (imo, including J8/86) and imho semi-bluffs/pure bluffs are almost non-existant right here. It might sound strange to a midstakes player like yourself, but listening to advice like yours from midstakes players who give advice which is completely correct for the stakes they play in but not so for the nl50/nl100 games (ie you have a set, never fold), can (imo) seriously delay the moving-up process of SSNL players.

On March 11 2009 08:54 n0rthf4ce wrote: ur line makes 0 sense and if hes smart enough to realize that and do something about it you can never fold.

This BUT

It's NL100, and ironically is probably the nittiest limit on Stars period. So folding is probably correct, no joke.

the only hands ahead of u are over sets....

honestly? an overset?

fwiw i dont generally give people at NL100 enough credit for hand-reading to get it in based on northface's justification. also I think there is an important difference between people c/ring flop cbets and bet/3betting the turn in a spot like this. I just dont think enough of his range is combo draws/pair + draw/pure bluff for anything except a turn fold to be profitable.

I've actually noticed that at nl100 many regulars who appear nitty and play abc suddenly get really spazzy if you do something aggressive with a line that makes no sense at all. Been a great surprise to me. Or at least some partypoker nl100 regs do, maybe they have different culture at stars

And imo it makes a huge difference that we have 3bet all in on flop vs him twice

auffen who are you on party?

From "The adventures of Sherlock Holmes", by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, a solid expample of the force of deduction:

Some weeks after solving the case of red haired man Sherlock and Watson were enjoying a well deserved moment of rest at Baker Street, when suddenly - after a long period of silence - Sherlock said:
"Watson, do you see this poster at liquidpoker?"
Watson looked at the laptops screen over Sherlocks shoulder and replied:
"Yeah, I've seen him post before, why?"
"Well, I can tell you that his account on partypoker is allin72o."
"Oh my Sherlock, how on earth is that possible? Goes way over me."
"Elementary, my dear Watson: I just clicked the "Hands" icon on the right of the guys name, and check which screenname he was using on his hands".

So thats just how Sherlock Holmes solved a problem similiar to yours. My screenname is allin72o

I agree on the part that some regulars have nitty stats but do tend to get out of the line if there is some dynamics going on. But we didn't have a lot going on as I recall.

On March 12 2009 05:48 auffenpuffer wrote: From "The adventures of Sherlock Holmes", by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle, a solid expample of the force of deduction: Some weeks after solving the case of red haired man Sherlock and Watson were enjoying a well deserved moment of rest at Baker Street, when suddenly - after a long period of silence - Sherlock said: "Watson, do you see this poster at liquidpoker?" Watson looked at the laptops screen over Sherlocks shoulder and replied: "Yeah, I've seen him post before, why?" "Well, I can tell you that his account on partypoker is allin72o." "Oh my Sherlock, how on earth is that possible? Goes way over me." "Elementary, my dear Watson: I just clicked the "Hands" icon on the right of the guys name, and check which screenname he was using on his hands". So thats just how Sherlock Holmes solved a problem similiar to yours. My screenname is allin72o

ahaha,wp sir

when you turn a set your never good
ive leard that

66, 88, JJ are all in his range, he probably wanted to c/r flop.
best to fold imo

this is 6 max,you can't fold vs villain
at least not with such history.
And he isn't a meganit too

On March 12 2009 12:04 HeRoS)eNGagE wrote: when you turn a set your never good ive leard that

True dat
Same for backdoor flushes

On March 12 2009 16:38 lebowski wrote: this is 6 max,you can't fold vs villain at least not with such history. And he isn't a meganit too

Not a meganit but definitly a nit, espcially in his position. I think his range in this spot is pretty small. Considering all these facts and recent history is this for 165bb an +EV move to shove or call/call or do I save money and fold because nl100 regs hardly go out of line in a big pot?

much better spots to stick the money in at nl100 than this imo

17/14/4 in 6max? lol that's pretty damn nitty, there are FR regs that play more loose than that
also, if you're felting bottom set on the turn here against this specific villain, you should probably re-evaluate your game

his thought process would be pretty much be
"ok i flopped a set, time to check/raise"
"well shit, the flop checked through, gotta get value on the turn now, esp since there's still draws out there, but they're most likely folding"
"nice, i'm getting action on this turn, i hope he's stupid enough to stackoff with 22 here"
"ship it"

On March 12 2009 02:37 auffenpuffer wrote: Show nested quote + fwiw i dont generally give people at NL100 enough credit for hand-reading to get it in based on northface's justification. also I think there is an important difference between people c/ring flop cbets and bet/3betting the turn in a spot like this. I just dont think enough of his range is combo draws/pair + draw/pure bluff for anything except a turn fold to be profitable. I've actually noticed that at nl100 many regulars who appear nitty and play abc suddenly get really spazzy if you do something aggressive with a line that makes no sense at all. Been a great surprise to me. Or at least some partypoker nl100 regs do, maybe they have different culture at stars And imo it makes a huge difference that we have 3bet all in on flop vs him twice

Even if that is true, even if folding KK pf is good in X spot, that is not the kind of thread you should be making to defeat what you call the nittiest of levels.


Basically what im saying is, if you have 2nd guesses about getting KK all-in preflop some times, then the problem is not your KK, but ALL of your other hands.

This advice is 100x more valuable than anything written in this thread btw

On March 13 2009 07:28 Baal wrote: Show nested quote + On March 12 2009 02:37 auffenpuffer wrote:   fwiw i dont generally give people at NL100 enough credit for hand-reading to get it in based on northface's justification. also I think there is an important difference between people c/ring flop cbets and bet/3betting the turn in a spot like this. I just dont think enough of his range is combo draws/pair + draw/pure bluff for anything except a turn fold to be profitable. I've actually noticed that at nl100 many regulars who appear nitty and play abc suddenly get really spazzy if you do something aggressive with a line that makes no sense at all. Been a great surprise to me. Or at least some partypoker nl100 regs do, maybe they have different culture at stars And imo it makes a huge difference that we have 3bet all in on flop vs him twice Even if that is true, even if folding KK pf is good in X spot, that is not the kind of thread you should be making to defeat what you call the nittiest of levels. Basically what im saying is, if you have 2nd guesses about getting KK all-in preflop some times, then the problem is not your KK, but ALL of your other hands. This advice is 100x more valuable than anything written in this thread btw

true,this is what I meant by "this is 6max",6 max games are supposed to be more aggro and with lots of action,stealing/restealing etc. If this isn't the case here, sure wth,fold a set (omg)
About 17/14 stats they are not something to consider if the sample is less than 100-150 hands imo,some times people are card dead/shortstackers prevent stealing /whatever.
I've thought many times that someone was a 14/11 nit and ~100-200 hands later he was like 20/16 or higher

I think the sample is 500+. During this hand I couldn't use timebank and only had 9 seconds to act.

u sure hes not spazzing out with AJ cause ur line looks so weird?

i shove to get called by Q9ss type hands bc i don't think he has pure air almost ever so i don't find much value in flatting so that he can continue to bluff

On March 13 2009 00:48 LilDeano89 wrote: much better spots to stick the money in at nl100 than this imo

yeah this is def true

we should also fold KK preflop as our standard because it would be better to get it in with AA preflop

at least preflop w/KK there are conceivably value hands in his stack-off range that we are ahead of. We beat nothing here but a bluff imho.

On March 13 2009 19:50 LilDeano89 wrote: at least preflop w/KK there are conceivably value hands in his stack-off range that we are ahead of. We beat nothing here but a bluff imho.

we beat a jack and two pair -.-

this is exactly what I was saying about midstakes players coming into an NL100 thread and posting advice relevant to their stakes that simply isn't for NL100 (on Stars at least, dunno about other sites). The villain is not a fish/monkey/retard who will spaz out with a jack or 2 pair. Or at least I have never seem him do it in over 1k hands sample. Imo he (and almost any other nitty NL100 Stars regular) DEFINATELY isnt doing it enough for anything but a fold to be profitable.

u would be suprised how many regs at this stakes suck balls

FWIW: I have stars datamined and he's 17/14 and very, very tight OOP.

maybe theres something wrong with my game but I just go all in and never look back if i lose. I dont remember myself folding a set ever before the river tbh : ) maybe once or twice. and where I play two pair (say top 2 or top/bottom) is almost unfoldable - i dont know about other sites. By this i mean i get it in almost everytime with 2 + and I`m usually good when called : )

well we should consider the fact that villain could be frustrated as we have shoved twice over his check raises before even thinking about folding our set(omg).