200bb, top 2, damn it

Submitted by : DustySwedeDude

** Hand # 2636403360 starting - 2009-06-01 13:32:26
** DeepStack 41 [Hold 'em] (2.00|4.00 NL - Cash Game) Real Money
flipius88 sitting in seat 1 with €800.00
Hero sitting in seat 3 with €812.00[Dealer]
onkimato sitting in seat 6 with €788.00
onkimato posted the small blind - €2.00
flipius88 posted the big blind - €4.00

Holecards
   
Hero raised to €12.00
onkimato called - €12.00
flipius88 called - €12.00

Flop (Pot : $36.00)

   
onkimato checked
flipius88 checked
Hero bet - €28.00
onkimato raised to €72.00
flipius88 raised to €199.00
Hero ??

you mean cold3bettor

On June 01 2009 07:11 maxousek wrote: you mean cold3bettor

that changes everything! ;O

even swedes have to fold sometimes imo

AA can be heavily discounted for both of them I think so that leaves 88/22 beating you. Onkimatos raise could be a wide range for sure as you are probably c-betting here a ton etc, filipus raise is scary but could just aswell be A2/brainfart/weird fd.

Not saying I like any of our options here but flatting would be superweird and I dont know if we can fold the nuts here. Id probably close my eyes and jam.

i have a hard time folding here... but i wouldnt feel too good about getting it in

it's almost irrelivant of how they view eachother flipius88 raised to €199.00 doing this with ANY flush draw is super +EV since it looks obsurdly strong at the same time his sizing does not pot commit him, and I'm guessing he expects you guys to fold your entire ranges except for sets.
This is a preety easy shove IMO aginst any compotent regular

.

i fold but recently i'm a very disciplined nit so...

id shove with your image

On June 01 2009 10:44 TalentedTom wrote: it's almost irrelivant of how they view eachother flipius88 raised to €199.00 doing this with ANY flush draw is super +EV since it looks obsurdly strong at the same time his sizing does not pot commit him, and I'm guessing he expects you guys to fold your entire ranges except for sets. This is a preety easy shove IMO aginst any compotent regular

ding ding ding imo!!!!!!!!!!

Tom is right in that raising here with a naked flush draw is +EV but I don't think many regulars at 2/4 do that so I'd fold. The fact that flipius88 thinks he might have less fold equity against you in particular (since he thinks you think he might be making a move here so you may shove light) makes it more of a fold. Also onkimato will show up with a set here from time to time.

if you raise any naked fd intenting to fold to a shove and knowing nobody is cold calling here isnt it effectively the same as with any 2 cards ? with the difference they have less combos of flush draws available obv.

On June 01 2009 23:13 LazyFisH wrote: Tom is right in that raising here with a naked flush draw is +EV but I don't think many regulars at 2/4 do that so I'd fold. The fact that flipius88 thinks he might have less fold equity against you in particular (since he thinks you think he might be making a move here so you may shove light) makes it more of a fold. Also onkimato will show up with a set here from time to time.

You dont think filipus is capable of raising a naked fd but you think he thinks that dusty will think that he is capable of doing that? That doesnt really compute.

However, I agree on that the only thing making me sorta mehshove here is that some ppl just dont see the great opportunity to raise a wide range in filipus spot. Still, we have the nuts how can we fold?

I know flip plays higher, but I've played a lot with him and I don't think I've seen him make these kinds of moves. Obviously he might've done them, but he don't strike me as the type.

However, I did fold mostly out of stupid reasons (I was about to quit and didn't want to deal with variance just before dinner) but right now I'm not really sure that it was correct.

I'm think evilsky has a point though.

On June 02 2009 02:55 EvilSky wrote: if you raise any naked fd intenting to fold to a shove and knowing nobody is cold calling here isnt it effectively the same as with any 2 cards ? with the difference they have less combos of flush draws available obv.

We cant know nobody isnt coldcalling for sure.

On June 02 2009 02:55 EvilSky wrote: if you raise any naked fd intenting to fold to a shove and knowing nobody is cold calling here isnt it effectively the same as with any 2 cards ? with the difference they have less combos of flush draws available obv.

You mentioned the first difference. Also it matters if someone calls because you have more equity then.

On June 02 2009 02:55 EvilSky wrote: if you raise any naked fd intenting to fold to a shove and knowing nobody is cold calling here isnt it effectively the same as with any 2 cards ? with the difference they have less combos of flush draws available obv.

sometimes people click call, but yeah the fold equity ehre is enormous w/ any 2

On June 02 2009 03:10 SakiSaki wrote: Show nested quote + On June 01 2009 23:13 LazyFisH wrote: Tom is right in that raising here with a naked flush draw is +EV but I don't think many regulars at 2/4 do that so I'd fold. The fact that flipius88 thinks he might have less fold equity against you in particular (since he thinks you think he might be making a move here so you may shove light) makes it more of a fold. Also onkimato will show up with a set here from time to time. You dont think filipus is capable of raising a naked fd but you think he thinks that dusty will think that he is capable of doing that? That doesnt really compute.

I mean that even if he is capable of doing it, this has to be discounted by the fact that he thinks Dusty might reshove light. So if he isn't capable of doing it then it's an easy fold but if he is capable of doing it then we have to give his naked FD range less weight.

On June 02 2009 16:25 LazyFisH wrote: Show nested quote + On June 02 2009 03:10 SakiSaki wrote:   On June 01 2009 23:13 LazyFisH wrote: Tom is right in that raising here with a naked flush draw is +EV but I don't think many regulars at 2/4 do that so I'd fold. The fact that flipius88 thinks he might have less fold equity against you in particular (since he thinks you think he might be making a move here so you may shove light) makes it more of a fold. Also onkimato will show up with a set here from time to time. You dont think filipus is capable of raising a naked fd but you think he thinks that dusty will think that he is capable of doing that? That doesnt really compute. I mean that even if he is capable of doing it, this has to be discounted by the fact that he thinks Dusty might reshove light. So if he isn't capable of doing it then it's an easy fold but if he is capable of doing it then we have to give his naked FD range less weight.

What world are you from? You really think he thinks dusty is going to shove vs a cold 3-bet with a light range here? that's beyond obsurd

Not to say it's not impossible, but the % chance he does this is clos eto 0