A Statician's take on RUNNING BAD! - Page 3

On August 23 2009 13:18 royalsu wrote: Daut I'm not saying that bad runs don't exist. In fact I'm showing precisely the opposite, that bad runs are very common. You can easily go broke in poker from a bad run.

well in your op you said running bad is a myth, which i think is the only thing most people would disagree with.

What I'm trying to point out in this article is how people think about bad runs and expected value. For example, if you're playing a session and you're up or down 5 buyins really quickly, this shouldn't be surprising and there should be no emotional feelings to a totally normal and common occurrence.

yeah but this doesn't have anything to do with statistics. understanding variance doesn't make someone immune to psychological frustration when they lose a bunch of buyins. it's an issue of maturity and composure.

i remember a test a while back where ppl write heads/tails randomly but people never actually put anything like HHHHHH in a row whereas random did.

and i doubt ur a statistician cos a) u cant spell it b) i didnt see any stats or nothing there (i studied stats in college)

On August 23 2009 14:17 genjix wrote: i remember a test a while back where ppl write heads/tails randomly but people never actually put anything like HHHHHH in a row whereas random did.

bah see above posts i mention this very fact

I dont get it, bad runs occur and some people will get bad runs that never gets evened out, while others runs good for life. When 10 millioner players are playing you will have some statistical anomalies in both ends of the spectrum its not like everyone will have the same luck in the end

So you're a "statician" eh? I believe it's called statistician.

You would probably know that if you were one though.

PS: Forgive me if this has been pointed out already. I saw this thread title on my phone and had to reply. Will read it when I get home.

On August 23 2009 09:19 [vital]Myth wrote: this would be useful on a forum strictly for people who ONLY play live poker and have played for less than 2 years we get it already

nah not rly
articles like this really helped me solve my tilt issues

wtf? only read op but is this for real

-ok dauts good

but you really need to clarify what your article is about. i think people realize that 5bi downswings are completely likely in small sessions, yet dealing with them isnt a matter of some statistical misunderstanding they have.

basically what this means is that you never run bad. you run as expected by the statistics.

On August 23 2009 22:35 spets1 wrote: basically what this means is that you never run bad. you run as expected by the statistics.

I think you're missing the point. Statistics he showed clearly prove you can run bad.

The point he was trying to make is that people experience bad runs and find it hard to fathom that they are running so bad, when it statistically is feasible.

I think the problem with a lot of us low stakes guys is that when we start poker a lot of our friends and family are like "omg that's gamb00ling!" and we're madly in <3 with poker so we come to the defense with "nah, no it's not skill will persevere in the long run!" But we're new to the game and are still honing such skills. Obviously the friends and family are partially right and luck must be acknowledged as a factor of this game and to not acknowledge it will only lead to overestimation of your skill.

But don't use bad luck as an excuse for sucking and humility is key when running good.

LOOOOOOOOOOOL

Submitted by : whamm!

PokerStars Game #32000867905: Holdem No Limit ($0.50/$1.00 USD) - 2009/08/24 11:46:59 ET
Table Werdandi 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: LoggerRythym ($259.95 in chips)
Seat 2: Billardär ($99.80 in chips)
Seat 3: I_h8_p0ker ($100 in chips)
Seat 5: Hero ($100 in chips)
Seat 8: 7thChakra ($174.05 in chips)
Seat 9: Laarsson ($106.20 in chips)
Hero: posts small blind $0.50
7thChakra: posts big blind $1

Holecards(Odds)
Dealt to Hero
Laarsson: folds
LoggerRythym: folds
Billardär: folds
I_h8_p0ker: raises $2 to $3
Hero: raises $10 to $13
7thChakra: calls $12
I_h8_p0ker: folds

Flop(Odds) (Pot : $29.00)

   
Hero: bets $20
7thChakra: calls $20

Turn(Odds) (Pot : $69.00)

   
Hero: bets $67 and is all-in
7thChakra: calls $67

River (Pot : $203.00)

   

Showdown
Hero: shows (two pair, Kings and Sixes)
7thChakra: shows (a full house, Queens full of Sixes)
7thChakra collected $200 from pot
7thChakra said, &quot;omg so sorries&quot;

Summary
Total pot $203 | Rake $3
Board  
Seat 1: LoggerRythym folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 2: Billardär folded before Flop (didnt bet)
Seat 3: I_h8_p0ker (button) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Hero (small blind) showed and lost with two pair, Kings and Sixes
Seat 8: 7thChakra (big blind) showed and won ($200) with a full house, Queens full of Sixes
Seat 9: Laarsson folded before Flop (didnt bet)

I think you can be on a downswing for a while, even like months. If you play a sick amount of hands, they should naturally last shorter on average, as variance decreases. But since lots of internet players have pretty aggressive bankroll management (like 25 bi's to move up) and not always optimal self-control (to play as usual and move down) it's inevitable ppl go broke or lose most of their roll. But I think most of the regs know all that's been said in this thread?

Playing more hands doesn't decrease your variance. Your variance will always be constant assuming your style isn't changing.

The only thing that will decrease variance is a higher winrate. This is mathematically proven using standard deviation.

On August 24 2009 11:59 RICHI8 wrote: The only thing that will decrease variance is a higher winrate. This is mathematically proven using standard deviation.

lol wat?

On August 24 2009 11:59 RICHI8 wrote: The only thing that will decrease variance is a higher winrate. This is mathematically proven using standard deviation.

false

On August 24 2009 11:59 RICHI8 wrote: The only thing that will decrease variance is a higher winrate. This is mathematically proven using standard deviation.

seriously if this was intended to be funny i absolutely love it

going to showdown less will also decrease variance as well as playing less 3bet pots.

edit: this is also mathematically proven. i'll post graphs later.