A Statician's take on RUNNING BAD! - Page 4

On August 24 2009 14:26 RICHI8 wrote: going to showdown less will also decrease variance as well as playing less 3bet pots. edit: this is also mathematically proven. i'll post graphs later.

i think you misunderstand what variance means lol.


essentially variance has a direct relationship with standard deviation. changing your winrate around while leaving standard deviation in no way changes the variance you go through. its just scaled at a different level. i.e. if you are a 100ptbb winner you will not really go on losing stretchs but the variance you experience will be centered around 100ptbb instead of 3ptbb.

I'm pretty sure the only way to decrease variance would be to decrease std dev...

On August 24 2009 15:19 SpeedyJack wrote: The only way to decrease variance would be to decrease std dev...

Variance is the square of the std dev.

Daut is so good at explaining things

On August 24 2009 11:59 RICHI8 wrote: The only thing that will decrease variance is a higher winrate. This is mathematically proven using standard deviation.

best post ever

WTF IM A STATICIAN.

Sorry I'll stop messing around here.

On August 24 2009 17:06 RICHI8 wrote: WTF IM A STATICIAN. Sorry I'll stop messing around here.

i call

my take on RUNNING GOOD!

On August 24 2009 15:18 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On August 24 2009 14:26 RICHI8 wrote: going to showdown less will also decrease variance as well as playing less 3bet pots. edit: this is also mathematically proven. i'll post graphs later. i think you misunderstand what variance means lol. essentially variance has a direct relationship with standard deviation. changing your winrate around while leaving standard deviation in no way changes the variance you go through. its just scaled at a different level. i.e. if you are a 100ptbb winner you will not really go on losing stretchs but the variance you experience will be centered around 100ptbb instead of 3ptbb.

well he wasnt accurate in what he said but its understandable what he tried to say and in that he is right.

i love this thread

full of STATICIANS !

meh, variance increase with the number of hands, but less than
the winrate, although we would only play a pure noise game.
SD( n ) = sqrt( n/100 ) *SD
WR( n ) = WR*n/100
(where SD and WR are your standard HEM/PT stats, and sqrt the square root function).

Actually since i added heavy maths to my game , im in a losestreak and especially in coinflips or 65/35 situations in either position.i dont know if its psycology or poker maths, but whenever i "read" my opponents hand and decide to play a hand coinflip , or decide to go all in with 65% favor me or 35% as an underdog i just lose the hand, and ofc blame luck in either case ;/

Math is idiotic?

lol baal
hahah so good