Deep itm Call or fold?

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bubble burst about an orbit ago. No stats on villain.

you're raising into 7 players, and hes overshoving like 26bb into you.
i think it depends what you think he thinks your utg range is.
like on the bubble were you raising a ton utg and stuff, cause if u were im pretty sure hell jam 9s here.
he obv can be AKo,AKs. QQ KK JJ type. He might not jam AA unless he knows your range utg is tight.
but even if hes 99+AKo,AKs
TT vs that range is 40.17%, not that good, 26bb is a big shove vs utg, like him shoving any pair and AQ is awful.

anyway, he has to be a horrible horrible player, or a good player and believes you are raising very wide to be jamming AQo. but if he believes you are raising wide, is he really jamming AA KK? doubtful.
so if he believes you are raising wide utg and you think hell jam AQ instead of flat it, you should call.
if not you should fold TT cause hes got u on tight range and hes sitting on the nuts trying to get max val pre. for TT to be ahead, this player would have to be a maniac or you would have to have a loose utg image.

easy fold imo, i think you're flipping against AK at best.

not that he'll have worse hands now and then, but most of the time he probably has JJ+ or AK

Without any info, if you put him on 99+ AK you have to call because of the pot odds.
and he may as well have AQs and, 88 in his range.

the fact the bubble has burst is quite important here imo. Players will tend to loosen up after the bubble and "go for it" and shove with non pairing hands alot here. Its very possible hes shoving with AJ+ and it is a flip. It depends if you want to gamble. Personally I am calling this because no info on villain, however I may play differently if more information on villain.

utg raise and utg+2 shoves with over avg stacks, don't know how deep. But I seriously doubt his range contains AJ or 88. I'd be surprised if his range is any wider than (TT)JJ+ and AK, AQ.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.109% 39.91% 00.20% 38268492 191327.00 { TcTd }
Hand 1: 59.891% 59.69% 00.20% 57237878 191327.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }

Even with the money already in the pot I think we should fold, we have a playable stack and ppl suck in these.

On October 04 2009 16:11 barbieman wrote: utg raise and utg+2 shoves with over avg stacks, don't know how deep. But I seriously doubt his range contains AJ or 88. I'd be surprised if his range is any wider than (TT)JJ+ and AK, AQ. equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 40.109% 39.91% 00.20% 38268492 191327.00 { TcTd } Hand 1: 59.891% 59.69% 00.20% 57237878 191327.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ } Even with the money already in the pot I think we should fold, we have a playable stack and ppl suck in these.

"Ppl suck, so I pass a +EV spot" is the worst argument.

yea looking back I think I should have called it(only because next few hands I saw he was gambling it up). I did put him on 9's+ and AK wasn't sure if I was ahead of that though. I was pretty crazy on the bubble but he wasn't at my table so unless he had my table up I don't think he knew. And I don't think the ppl sucked in this atleast not to meee

" 'Ppl suck, so I pass a +EV spot' is the worst argument."

In tournaments it can be very +$ to pass on +EV spots. Aaargh, if you're at a good table, have an edge, a good position at the table, why take a small +EV spot when you just can take down several smaller pots by stealing? He has a playable stack, but his table placing seems shitty since a much bigger stack is directly to his left, if you feel you won't be able to steal alot, then I guess call. But it's far from a bad argument.

From my experience you can usually steal ALOT late in the lower buy-in tournaments, and I guess this is the $10 1r1a.

nah this is $50 1r1a

its a fold unless u know better imo