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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 07 2009 22:11. Posts 5070 | | |
| On October 07 2009 15:53 remember87 wrote:
nice video! I liked it
w/ JJ on 522hh4 when you B/F turn, it is true that donks sometimes do have AA-QQ there. But if you havnt seen him have that before I would get it in. He should have AK way more often then those high pairs and on the turn he picks up a gutshot. Since your range often is JJ-99 (as you say) he has 10 outs and he may think he has a decent amount of FE (you could try to buy the pot, or fold 99 etc). He could also spaz some etc. If the gutshot hadnt come I may have folded..
The Kd6d hand is also interesting. As you say, he should bet 9x very often on the turn (since there is so many draws out there). If he isnt very good at valuebetting he shouldnt raise the river with Qx either (just call). So the only things he can have that beats you are slowplayed 9x, sets (full house) and perhaps AA, KK, AQ. None of them should accour very often.
So what can he have that we beat? Missed draws and there are plenty of those. IF he is capable of bluffing in this spot I would call. You bet so big that he may think your range is polarized (you wouldnt bet many underpairs to the Q for value and most of your range consists of that) There has been soo many times I have B/C in this spot and won.
On the other hand, if he is a fish he wont think in these lines and probably will only raise with hands for value (and never as a bluff). So fold might be right (but as the fish I am I would probably call; either "for information" or that I talk myself into that he has a missed draw ) |
Yea I'm still not sure about the JJ hand, I just didnt feel like he would raise the turn with AK, but rather call, but then again he shouldn't check back the flop with better. I kinda regret not getting it in, because I'd just like to see what he had but in the past when I called in that spot vs these nitty straightforward regs they always had a misplayed QQ+. Bleh, I think I still should've got it in anyway since this is pretty much the top of my range, maybe I'd flat QQ and once in a while with stronger (Super unlikely vs this guy though since his range is pretty tight and I'd expect to get it in pre a whole bunch).
K6dd I was never expecting to get raised on the river since it makes no sense then it happened and I was like, yeah this guy sucks but I gave him credit to suck enough to slowplay the turn rather than suck enough to bluff raise the river. Still not sure since I didn't call and see, but I think I like a c/c more anyway since valuebet is really thin even though I am repping a shitton of busted draws cause he can't hand read for shit and probably isnt gonna call me that often with A high and there are not many smaller pairs to the 6 that he can have, though he isn't gonna have a queen or better that often assuming he bets the turn when he has me beat, and because he's totally tarded I think he'll bluff the queen a lot when checked to just cause he has no other way to win the pot, thus bluffing more than paying off a value bet with a worse 6, 4, pocket pair or A high. He can't win if he checks back no showdown value. If he has a queen I lose the same whether I bet or c/c anyway (Assuming equal betsizing). I dunno about bet/call I would never bet with the plan of inducing a raise and then snapcalling or anything like that, I think you encounter a raise when you bet here less than like 1% of the time and so I was super confused like many other spots in this video but you could be right again, maybe he is clowning enough to raise there. |
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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | |
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hoylemj   United States. Oct 08 2009 12:17. Posts 840 | | |
| On October 07 2009 09:03 whamm! wrote:
any link to the last one? i wanted to download that one too but my net was kinda shit during that time. thanks |
2 vids:
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Rapoza   Brasil. Oct 08 2009 14:18. Posts 1612 | | |
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Pouncer Style 4 the win | Last edit: 08/10/2009 14:34 |
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 08 2009 23:15. Posts 5070 | | |
I bet because I think it's stupid for him to check back any better hand on the flop because basically all of my range is calling a bet from him on that flop, and if the turn comes A or K and I have an underpair I'm check/folding and those hands make up of my entire range. I'm actually not flatting in this spot often at all, my range may just be TT-QQ and nothing else so obviously checking back would be losing a lot of value and would suck mighty balls if he has me beat. Whereas if he bets the flop he can get at least 1 bet and possibly all my money, so I bet the turn for protection and value thinking that my hand is almost always best, and I do think a lot of people call the turn with AK high there, but I guess it's possible he raise bluffs with AK to try and get me off the lower portion of my range, and if so he tricked me good and got me to fold the best hand, but I doubt he is bluffing cause he isn't going to be expecting me to fold a hand like I had on that turn card, but even though he doesn't expect that it doesn't make it a good play with KK/AA for reasons I've already outlined. Also, apparently checking back the flop and raising the turn didn't get all my money, but I'm still not sure my fold was correct and I wouldn't have many hands that are flat out bluffs in my range anyway so checking to induce bluffs is very poor play when he is going to be missing out on so much pure value from all my hands that can stand action on the flop. |
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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | |
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Rapoza   Brasil. Oct 09 2009 15:00. Posts 1612 | | |
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 09 2009 21:27. Posts 5070 | | |
Yeah I know what you're saying, I mean I did fold my hand in the end and I would never do that if I thought he was good since he should always be betting QQ+ on the flop. He probably is thinking just like you said, but he could be playing AK retardedly too, I'll never know since I didn't call him down.
Calling turn with AK is a mistake considering my range but if you start adding non pairs to my range, things like AQ maybe AJs etc then calling turn with AK wouldn't be a mistake, even given my range calling turn is not a HUGE mathematical mistake, he has 22.7% pot equity on this board vs TT-QQ and he's calling $34.45 to win a pot of $82.9, so he needs 29.3% equity to break even on a call given a range of only TT-QQ without implied odds. Even though he doesn't have any implied odds, as I'm definitely check folding A,K,3 rivers, just adding AQs to my range puts him at 30.5%, so if he thought I was calling preflop, betting the turn with that he would be getting correct odds to call against a range of AQs, TT-QQ. I guess it becomes worse if KK-AA is ever in my range but it's probably not here since I think his range is strong, thus he'd be getting it in pre a LOT of the time and thus I'd be 4betting my monsters.
Checking aces on the flop is a mistake you can't quantify mathematically but I think it's far bigger than calling turn with AK. |
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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | |
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SPEWTARD   Peru. Oct 11 2009 02:17. Posts 4306 | | |
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ToD   France. Oct 11 2009 02:48. Posts 191 | | |
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Rapoza   Brasil. Oct 11 2009 07:15. Posts 1612 | | |
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mrpav.com   Canada. Oct 11 2009 13:50. Posts 3069 | | |
When it comes to working out, you gatta bulk or cut, you cant have both. Like fore example when i cut i went from 200 to 183 %13BF and then bulked to 220. Give me a PM, i can help you out/. |
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Whiplash   United States. Oct 12 2009 01:59. Posts 6 | | |
Cool video, its like a starcraft vod or something with commentary |
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former competitive SC2 player... | |
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ToT)MidiaN(   United Kingdom. Oct 13 2009 00:30. Posts 5070 | | |
| On October 11 2009 12:50 mrpav.com wrote:
When it comes to working out, you gatta bulk or cut, you cant have both. Like fore example when i cut i went from 200 to 183 %13BF and then bulked to 220. Give me a PM, i can help you out/. |
Yeah I'm currently in a cutting phase since my bodyfat is already high at 22% and then bulking when I get down to like 12-15% body fat or so, any suggestions on when it would be a good idea to start bulking? I definitely wanna get around to bulking eventually because I don't have much muscle mass right now, but bulking first seems bad when my body fat is already so high, I definitely don't want any more fat than i already have.
Also I never said I'm trying to do both at once but I've heard it is possible (albeit difficult) to put on some lean muscle mass while cutting. Usually not much and it doesn't happen all that often from what I gather but it's not too uncommon in newbies, which is essentially what I am when it comes to lifting. |
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One day good. One day bad. And some days, even hope | Last edit: 13/10/2009 00:32 |
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