10NL guidelines. - Page 2

On October 21 2009 16:15 Holly23 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 21 2009 16:07 tec27 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:54 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:51 street_hooker wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:51 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:46 street_hooker wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:44 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:30 ytricky wrote: [Gotta work on that man. Get your PFR and VPIP closer together and be more agressive postflop. You are going to showdown too often. I agree that I need to increase my PFR, but this current style that I'm using is extremely effective for me. My profit in relation to my hand sample is well above what an average person makes at this limit. That's called a heater. Yeah you are right, judging by my graph at NL2, I went on a 110,000 hand heater. I amaze myself! 6000 hands and 15 buyins Isn't indicative of anything. I referring to my NL2 graph in my Blog, so clearly it is indicative of something. The guy in the OP claims out of 11,000 hands his profit is only 40 cents. This is a clear indication he is doing something wrong. Being up 155.00 in 6,000 is a clear indication something is being done right. That is not a clear indication at all. It would be very easy to run bad and go breakeven over 11k hands. By that same logic, your 6k hand sample also means nothing. Hop over to the articles section of this site and look up the article on variance. Do the calculations for your own hand sample and see that the range that you could be up/down at this point is HUGE. So you acquaint his 40 cent profit in a 11,000 hand sample to just running bad? Nothing to do with style?

If he is a winner at nl5 for a large sample size, he should have no problem beating nl10. So yes.

Edit: I really don't think you understand just how small of a sample 11k hands is.

Seriously, read through this: http://www.liquidpoker.net/pokerartic...ankroll_management_and_variance_guide

And do the calculations for your own sample. It will amaze you how much variance can be involved.

On October 21 2009 16:23 tec27 wrote: Show nested quote + On October 21 2009 16:15 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 16:07 tec27 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:54 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:51 street_hooker wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:51 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:46 street_hooker wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:44 Holly23 wrote:   On October 21 2009 15:30 ytricky wrote: [Gotta work on that man. Get your PFR and VPIP closer together and be more agressive postflop. You are going to showdown too often. I agree that I need to increase my PFR, but this current style that I'm using is extremely effective for me. My profit in relation to my hand sample is well above what an average person makes at this limit. That's called a heater. Yeah you are right, judging by my graph at NL2, I went on a 110,000 hand heater. I amaze myself! 6000 hands and 15 buyins Isn't indicative of anything. I referring to my NL2 graph in my Blog, so clearly it is indicative of something. The guy in the OP claims out of 11,000 hands his profit is only 40 cents. This is a clear indication he is doing something wrong. Being up 155.00 in 6,000 is a clear indication something is being done right. That is not a clear indication at all. It would be very easy to run bad and go breakeven over 11k hands. By that same logic, your 6k hand sample also means nothing. Hop over to the articles section of this site and look up the article on variance. Do the calculations for your own hand sample and see that the range that you could be up/down at this point is HUGE. So you acquaint his 40 cent profit in a 11,000 hand sample to just running bad? Nothing to do with style? If he is a winner at nl5 for a large sample size, he should have no problem beating nl10. So yes. Edit: I really don't think you understand just how small of a sample 11k hands is. Seriously, read through this: http://www.liquidpoker.net/pokerartic...ankroll_management_and_variance_guide And do the calculations for your own sample. It will amaze you how much variance can be involved.

I'm not denying that variance exist and I agree that 11,000 hands is a small sample. However, blaming losses on just variance alone is not responsible thinking. Large losses are due to multiple factors: variance, play style, tilt. In the case of the OP, I think his play style is one of the factors aside from variance. The End.

P.S.- he never clarified if he was winning player at NL5

Edit:Not sure what his life time hand history is since this last blog entry. Either way, you guys are not helping him by patting him on the back and telling him "is is just 100% variance". Until he post hands or graphs I guess it will be fair to say that none of us can put a finger on what is really going on.

On September 13 2009 08:21 wurzelbrumpft wrote:
the last week ive been playing only NL5 about 12k hands and my bankroll is exactly -1$ from where i started a week ago.

Holly you are completely wrong here. Do you even have enough information about the OP to make such a statement anyway? I'm grinding right now but I'll try proving how wrong you are about winrate and sample size when I have time next break.

edit: didn't notice there was a second page before posting this and therefore didn't see your last post. However, I still think you seem a little misguided in terms of interpreting winrates.

just to clarify stuff my total winrate at 5NL was 6.7BB/100 over 35K hands. also it would be nice to hear some more about that awesome 25BB/100 style your talking about.