Bitcoin's and the future of online banking - Page 11

On November 14 2013 07:36 Emi wrote: It is just that 99% of "classical" economist wether they are austrian or keynesian dismissed bitcoins a long time ago, yet they have been proved wrong year after year.

This seems like the old "it's not in a bubble because it's price keeps rising" type of thinking.

I mean the whole idea behind bitcoin is that it won't suffer from devaluation due to the inflation of its supply. So if it's gaining 3% a year against the dollar or whatever, that would make sense. But it's gained 1000% in the past year. I mean is there any credible argument whatsoever that this isn't just pure speculation?

On November 14 2013 22:22 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On November 14 2013 07:36 Emi wrote: It is just that 99% of "classical" economist wether they are austrian or keynesian dismissed bitcoins a long time ago, yet they have been proved wrong year after year. This seems like the old "it's not in a bubble because it's price keeps rising" type of thinking. I mean the whole idea behind bitcoin is that it won't suffer from devaluation due to the inflation of its supply. So if it's gaining 3% a year against the dollar or whatever, that would make sense. But it's gained 1000% in the past year. I mean is there any credible argument whatsoever that this isn't just pure speculation?

Digital Currency is the future. No matter how you look at it. Bitcoin may fail but others will succeed. Even big banks will favour idea of digitalized currency. However they will want to centralize it.

Bitcoin is decentralized. And I hope it wins over the banks. I think right now they are looking at bitcoin and thinking how to ban it. How to control it. How to centralize it. Therefore they will most likely try to create a similar digital currency, only they will control it and try to squash bitcoin (outlaw it, associate it with laundering, child pronography, terrorism, other illegal activities). I hope the decentralized currencies win as they can't be controlled by a single entity.

I believe bitcoin will fail (economic reasons). But other digital currency similar in algorithm will be adopted. Hopefully it will become the currency of choice in the future that cannot be printed into oblivion by the government, but instead behave in predictable, mathematical algorithms.

So to answer your question - Yes it is a speculation, but in this world everything is. It is not however an empty speculation. The benefits that bitcoin can provide for humanity is amazing. And has never been implemented before in human history. Its very exciting.

On November 14 2013 22:22 NMcNasty wrote: Show nested quote + On November 14 2013 07:36 Emi wrote: It is just that 99% of "classical" economist wether they are austrian or keynesian dismissed bitcoins a long time ago, yet they have been proved wrong year after year. This seems like the old "it's not in a bubble because it's price keeps rising" type of thinking. I mean the whole idea behind bitcoin is that it won't suffer from devaluation due to the inflation of its supply. So if it's gaining 3% a year against the dollar or whatever, that would make sense. But it's gained 1000% in the past year. I mean is there any credible argument whatsoever that this isn't just pure speculation?

My argument was just to dismiss the "this is a renowned economist so when he say bitcoin sucks he is right".

Ofc the current rate of value increase is not due to devaluation, the current rate of increase is due to increase in adoption. Obviously if 10 times as many people are interested in bitcoins the price will roughly goes 10 times higher due to offer and demands.
In that case, thats not really a bubble, ie it might not necessarly crash. We might see some small crashs like we ve seen over the years but the 0.53% / day increase has been pretty regular over the last 4 years.

Thats one of the only asset that is both a technology and money; so the value of bitcoin goes in line with its adoption percentage. It it ever goes mainstream, it will be way higher than the current price, and it might happens since the technology is still in its infancy.

I wont go over all the advantage of bitcoins, but lets just say anonymous, instant, controlled monetary supply, and free transactions are all awesome and far better than the hastle that is moving money oversea or on the internet.

Btw, some advertisement for my service : www.btcoracle.com binary option broker.

And right now bitcoin is having 7 or 8% a year inflation in term of pure monetary creation. Which is still lower than all central banks which prints at a 10%/year rate

On November 15 2013 10:05 Emi wrote: Show nested quote + On November 14 2013 22:22 NMcNasty wrote:   On November 14 2013 07:36 Emi wrote: It is just that 99% of "classical" economist wether they are austrian or keynesian dismissed bitcoins a long time ago, yet they have been proved wrong year after year. This seems like the old "it's not in a bubble because it's price keeps rising" type of thinking. I mean the whole idea behind bitcoin is that it won't suffer from devaluation due to the inflation of its supply. So if it's gaining 3% a year against the dollar or whatever, that would make sense. But it's gained 1000% in the past year. I mean is there any credible argument whatsoever that this isn't just pure speculation? Ofc the current rate of value increase is not due to devaluation, the current rate of increase is due to increase in adoption.

Yeah but the adoption is for the wrong reasons. People don't want bitcoins to use them, they want them to sell them later and turn a profit. If anything bitcoin price fluctuation right now should be bringing their use down. Merchants can't be expected to be changing the princes of their goods every day.

We might see some small crashs like we ve seen over the years but the 0.53% / day increase has been pretty regular over the last 4 years.

Seems the increase over the past 4 years has been anything but regular.

I mean don't get me wrong, I think the ideas behind bitcoin are pretty awesome. It just seems like those good ideas have been hijacked by a bunch of noob investors.

On November 15 2013 10:05 Emi wrote: s but the 0.53% / day increase has been pretty regular over the last 4 years.

~ 180% p.a. return on my money? SIGN ME UP SON

On November 15 2013 02:30 spets1 wrote: So to answer your question - Yes it is a speculation, but in this world everything is.

This is mumbo jumbo bullshit that means absolutely nothing.

On November 15 2013 10:05 Emi wrote: Obviously if 10 times as many people are interested in bitcoins the price will roughly goes 10 times higher due to offer and demands.

That's not how supply and demand in relation to price works at all.

We might see some small crashs like we ve seen over the years but the 0.53% / day increase has been pretty regular over the last 4 years.

Yes like the small crash where the price went from about $180 to under $100, just a small correction right? As for the "regular" increases? I guess by regular you mean "does nothing for years and then goes from about $5 in Jan 13 to $465 in Nov 13". Regular as clockwork.

Thats one of the only asset that is both a technology and money; so the value of bitcoin goes in line with its adoption percentage.

So I think what you're saying is if we have a (techonology) and add it to b (money) then it must be equal to zk34%%#^ (adoption percentage). This is of course illustrated by the stagnant volume...oh.

Btw, some advertisement for my service : www.btcoracle.com binary option broker.

Instead of stating up front I have an interest in bitcoin like an ethical professional here is my shitty advert.

On November 15 2013 13:27 NMcNasty wrote:It just seems like those good ideas have been hijacked by a bunch of noob investors.

Correct.

"That's not how supply and demand in relation to price works at all."

Of course it is not a direct "linear" relationship but there is obviously a very strong correlation between the price increase and the adoption.

"Yes like the small crash where the price went from about $180 to under $100, just a small correction right?"

Well considering on all the "bubbles" the price did like *20 in a short period of time I consider indeed that just a -50% correction is indeed a small one all things . After each "crash" the price was effectively much much higher than before the preceding bubble

"
Instead of stating up front I have an interest in bitcoin like an ethical professional here is my shitty advert."

Sure thats why I am reading those forums since so many years, because yeah I planned to advertise my business on this topic today...

"So I think what you're saying is if we have a (techonology) and add it to b (money) then it must be equal to zk34%%#^ (adoption percentage). This is of course illustrated by the stagnant volume...oh."

Stagnant volume lol. The 24h trading volume has reached much more than 50 million dollar obviously you know what you are talking about dude.

On November 16 2013 11:28 Emi wrote: Stagnant volume lol. The 24h trading volume has reached much more than 50 million dollar obviously you know what you are talking about dude.

Anyone can go check out a bitcoin volume chart (like here Volume over last 2 years in currency, to see for example, if the "more than $50 million" of which you speak happened ONE TIME in April/May (IF you include ALL exchanges but it didn't happen on the largest exchange). Obviously a 24 hour period back in April/May is pretty relevant to your adoption percentage theory.

Here is a volume chart with the currency removed over the last 2 years. Of course that increase in currency volume (as seen in the first chart) is driven by bitcoin going from $1 to almost $500. Instead of seeing a steady increase in the amount of bitcoins (eg actual number of coins traded instead of the value of the coins) traded that you would expect to see from adopters entering the market, which Emi purports is what the value of bitcoin tracks, you see almost flat volume (around 75k with some spikes like in April 13, August 12, etc).

On November 16 2013 18:37 Funktion wrote: Show nested quote + On November 16 2013 11:28 Emi wrote: Stagnant volume lol. The 24h trading volume has reached much more than 50 million dollar obviously you know what you are talking about dude. Anyone can go check out a bitcoin volume chart (like here Volume over last 2 years in currency, to see for example, if the "more than $50 million" of which you speak happened ONE TIME in April/May (IF you include ALL exchanges but it didn't happen on the largest exchange). Obviously a 24 hour period back in April/May is pretty relevant to your adoption percentage theory. Here is a volume chart with the currency removed over the last 2 years. Of course that increase in currency volume (as seen in the first chart) is driven by bitcoin going from $1 to almost $500. Instead of seeing a steady increase in the amount of bitcoins (eg actual number of coins traded instead of the value of the coins) traded that you would expect to see from adopters entering the market, which Emi purports is what the value of bitcoin tracks, you see almost flat volume (around 75k with some spikes like in April 13, August 12, etc).

The volume you are talking about is the volume on a SINGLE exchange, mtgox. If you combine all the exchange, and thats not even taking into account direct trading, we are above 50m$.

I dont know why you talk about "all the exchange" when quoting the graph about mtgox, the reason the volume seems lower now is because mtgox has kinda lost is leadership and now btcchina, bitstamp and localbitcoins are all bigs as well.

Your 2nd argument is way off as well. There is no reason for the number of bitcoins traded based on the number of people entering the markets. When there was only 10 people, of course everyone could be trading hundreds f thousands of bitcoins. But anyway, when there is a lot of participants in the market, the "floating" quantity of bitcoin has no reason to be higher ; a lot of people are not trading their coins and the quantity exchanged is relatively stable.

And of course, if there is only 75k bitcoin available for trade each day, it is pretty obvious that if the amount of USD available for trading is multiplied by 10, then the price has to go up by like *10 to keep up with the new ratio Btc / usd

Anyway I wont argue that there is more and more adopters, there is lot of sources for that and lots of metrics, you can just google them and that is obviously the main reason for price increase.

You can check wallets on wallets site, customers for business, etc. etc. all are growing exponentially

Well post up all this aggregate data that you obviously have available and you will settle the argument easily.

google trend bitcoins

all infos on users and transactions at blockchain.info

volumes on exchanges

number of users on reddit bitcoin

wikipedia bitcoin number of view

bitpay number of marchants

etc etc

You can basically pick any metrics.

TL;DR intermission

Funktion: 8712371
Emi: 1

Emi your arguments are all backwards. You base shit on events that already happened, and doing a poor job at that if i might add. It comes off as you are trying to implement concepts from finance and its lingo into bitcoin world without understanding the underlying theory much. I suggest stopping right here and saving face as you are up against a formidable opponent. Funktion, sounds like you are in finance for a living, what do you do?
I like the good old "but use google to prove yourself wrong because i sure can't" line aswell.

Unless there is evidence of some sort of value Warren Buffett would vaguely grasp i am staying away from this volatile mess. How can bitcoins value be measured seems to be the big question that i have yet to see answered.

On November 16 2013 22:24 Emi wrote: google trend bitcoins all infos on users and transactions at blockchain.info volumes on exchanges number of users on reddit bitcoin wikipedia bitcoin number of view bitpay number of marchants etc etc You can basically pick any metrics.

Just because the price goes up doesn't mean the value has to.
Just because there is volume doesn't meen there is value. Supposedly trading 50mil a day is still a small cap company volume.
Number of users on reddit bitcoin is not an acceptable metric. Wikipedia number of views isn't either.
Bitpay number of merchants is a whopping 12 000 ! Holy shit 12 000 is a large number so it definitely means something. Only tournament and hsnl players see such astronomical numbers so for the rest it is a really nice metric because their groceries cost way less.

You can pick any metric to destroy bitcoins just as easily. Don't ask us to hang ourselves if we aren't too eager to jump on the bitcoin train that seemingly runs on nothing.

On November 15 2013 02:30 spets1 wrote: Show nested quote + On November 14 2013 22:22 NMcNasty wrote:   On November 14 2013 07:36 Emi wrote: It is just that 99% of "classical" economist wether they are austrian or keynesian dismissed bitcoins a long time ago, yet they have been proved wrong year after year. This seems like the old "it's not in a bubble because it's price keeps rising" type of thinking. I mean the whole idea behind bitcoin is that it won't suffer from devaluation due to the inflation of its supply. So if it's gaining 3% a year against the dollar or whatever, that would make sense. But it's gained 1000% in the past year. I mean is there any credible argument whatsoever that this isn't just pure speculation? Digital Currency is the future. No matter how you look at it. Bitcoin may fail but others will succeed. Even big banks will favour idea of digitalized currency. However they will want to centralize it. Bitcoin is decentralized. And I hope it wins over the banks. I think right now they are looking at bitcoin and thinking how to ban it. How to control it. How to centralize it. Therefore they will most likely try to create a similar digital currency, only they will control it and try to squash bitcoin (outlaw it, associate it with laundering, child pronography, terrorism, other illegal activities). I hope the decentralized currencies win as they can't be controlled by a single entity. I believe bitcoin will fail (economic reasons). But other digital currency similar in algorithm will be adopted. Hopefully it will become the currency of choice in the future that cannot be printed into oblivion by the government, but instead behave in predictable, mathematical algorithms. So to answer your question - Yes it is a speculation, but in this world everything is. It is not however an empty speculation. The benefits that bitcoin can provide for humanity is amazing. And has never been implemented before in human history. Its very exciting.

You seem to have knowledge on this matter and can raise some awareness.
Why is digital currency the future? What is wrong with the current system? I'd like to know more.

Economy is a lot of people making a lot of transactions. People don't behave in a predictable, mathematical algorhythmic way.

What do you mean by digital currency similar in algorhytm? Lost me.

On November 14 2013 14:18 Defrag wrote: Show nested quote + On November 14 2013 11:08 cariadon wrote:   On November 14 2013 08:59 Defrag wrote:   On November 14 2013 08:10 julep wrote: rumor is the fed is buying bitcoins to make it bubble then burst to change perceptions of it Don't think this is the case, FBI confiscated over $90mln in Bitcoin(should be solid $130mln+ now) when Silkmarket went down. If they started selling they would completetly crash the market - just look at what happened in April. Wat? What happened in April? Bitcoin value crashed, going from ~280$ to $50 in a span of 4h.

So there was a massive spike down? What caused it?

@cariadon I dont really have any interest in this debate to be honnest. I have already done it tons of times other the years on different forums and it gets kind of tiring.

However, to me it is really funny that from the couple of post you are suggesting Fucktion is a financial guy and that I am not. I am100% a warren buffet advocate (benjamin graham to be more exact) and I have actually occupied many different positions in the financial world.

I am also doing a lecture in a financial conference this very week with others financial compagnies and start up CEO regarding new financial paradigms like bitcoins.

But whatever I always thought that arguments of authority were shitty anyway, so I will just surrender gracefully.

On November 17 2013 18:15 cariadon wrote: Show nested quote + On November 16 2013 22:24 Emi wrote: google trend bitcoins all infos on users and transactions at blockchain.info volumes on exchanges number of users on reddit bitcoin wikipedia bitcoin number of view bitpay number of marchants etc etc You can basically pick any metrics. Just because the price goes up doesn't mean the value has to. Just because there is volume doesn't meen there is value. Supposedly trading 50mil a day is still a small cap company volume. Number of users on reddit bitcoin is not an acceptable metric. Wikipedia number of views isn't either. Bitpay number of merchants is a whopping 12 000 ! Holy shit 12 000 is a large number so it definitely means something. Only tournament and hsnl players see such astronomical numbers so for the rest it is a really nice metric because their groceries cost way less. You can pick any metric to destroy bitcoins just as easily. Don't ask us to hang ourselves if we aren't too eager to jump on the bitcoin train that seemingly runs on nothing.

there's no point wasting words on a guy who lists those metrics as proof.

So 1000 anyone? from 150-200, that's 700-500% increase, which is in line for a small bubble.