Bitcoin's and the future of online banking - Page 37

On September 26 2017 20:21 Trav94 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 26 2017 06:10 Baalim wrote: That is just plain guessing continuing to draw choosing different points in the graph, pointless imo. To someone who is terrible at poker, a lot of what you do is plain guessing and gambly/pointless. I guarantee you I'm much better at this than you, and this is far from plain guessing.

Cant refute that, altough you posted graphs done in paint projecting 8 years in the future without any justification or anything like that.

On September 26 2017 20:21 Trav94 wrote: Show nested quote + On September 26 2017 06:10 Baalim wrote: That is just plain guessing continuing to draw choosing different points in the graph, pointless imo. To someone who is terrible at poker, a lot of what you do is plain guessing and gambly/pointless. I guarantee you I'm much better at this than you, and this is far from plain guessing. I'm not saying anything I say is going to happen, I'm just pointing out likely scenarios based on what's happened so far. The lines drawn aren't just drawn in random places to show price would go down. They're drawn around where price would go roughly based on how markets work and market history. Otherwise I'd just do this

rofl..

Show us a transaction of your buys and sells with timestamps, you can block out the amounts

Proooooove you are good at trading. Lets compare it to someone who bought and held since your first buy point, lets see your edge.

First off it's not drawn in paint, I could draw it with trend lines, but just using the drawing tool in trading view is faster and easier.

Secondly, why would I waste my time posting buys/sells. I gain nothing from wasting hours going back in time gathering all that info just so I can convince wobbly of something.

I'm not trying to prove anything to anyone. I just enjoy talking about this with people and sharing my ideas. But if your best argument against anything I say can be boiled down to "I feel this and that but have no real understanding", then I guess this is pointless. I don't understand how people can shit on things they have very little understanding of. Especially this community. Almost all of you are good poker players (relative to the avg poker player anyway), and you have decent or good comprehension of things most people can't fathom. You should be able to look back at yourself before poker and realise you are at the same level of understanding with this. It just seems super hypocritical.

We can book our trades through you wobbly and will play as big as you are comfortable with if you think they aren't profitable.

I currently pay .07% in fees per trade on finex, so I'll pay .06% to do it through you instead.

Edit: I don't expect you to accept this. In fact I won't let you. Basically trading is like any other analytical game, it's beatable because you are playing against other market players who may do it worse than you. And the beautiful thing about trading, particularly when juxtaposed to poker, is that there is no forced action. You can wait for pocket aces repeatedly and only trade the very best things.

I still probably lose slightly on a decent % of my altcoin/BTC trades (or finish about breakeven) because I jump out quick if things don't look how I want, but I've gotten pretty good at noticing when coins have a chance to go parabolic or when they are about to dump. I picked LTC at .0116 and sold between .016 and .018. I picked PAY at 63k satoshis and sold between 95 and 120k. Late last year I bought a ton of ETH, some Golem, and Monero. Yet still the majority of my trades are on coins that had fake breakouts and i lose -10% to profiting +10%. Examples include ZEC (bought at .06, sold at .062), UBQ (bought at 58k, pulled out at 55k), WAVES (bought at 144k, sold at 136k), NEO (was in and out a few times, some positive, some negative), and others.

But BTC/USD is an easier pair to trade. I sold when it dropped below 4k, rebought it all back at different increments on the way down to 3000 (mostly 3500/3250/3000). Then after the rebound, when it dropped below 3800 i sold some, and bought back in the 36xx range when it started looking favorable again after a Charlie Lee tweet. My style of trading isn't likely to get the absolute tops or bottoms (was lucky to hit 3000, psychological number), but I'm pretty good at riding momentum and finding coins that have potential for huge gains. The ones that don't work out quickly I get out, and hold the ones that do.

Acting like it's impossible to be a profitable trader is hilariously stupid. Every game that is played against others who can do it significantly worse has edge. Go play the best player in the world in Yahtzee 1000 times and see what happens. Trading is a beatable game that most people lose at, but if you are disciplined and patient you can do much better than just holding your coins.

Had I held only BTC all this time I'd have X BTC. Instead I have ~2.5X BTC in a year. Sure a lot of the gains were from ETH going insane, but it was not the only coin that gave 10-30x returns to increase BTC total (GNT, ICN, XMR, BTS).

And of course, none of this is adding in picking good ICOs to invest in which can give you huge returns (LUN, SALT). It's a different type of trading, more based on fundamentals than technical analysis, but it's still trading.

what's wrong with you wobbly? why the need to debase someone?

I’m not saying no one can trade and make money off btc, ofcourse there is massive skill in non efficient and illiquid market.

I’m saying his basic charting wasn’t backed up by any analysis or evidence.

I wouldn’t bet you daut fwiw.

On September 27 2017 23:55 lucky331 wrote: what's wrong with you wobbly? why the need to debase someone?

Is he a personal hero of yours? I wasn’t attacking him just his chart of btc.

I'm with you wobbly, I'm not a fan of his charting technique on that graph, but I think he was just showing some possible trendlines and ways it could play out long term, but it's not realistic. Using monthlies on a 24/7/365 market that moves quickly isn't a good idea, and it's impossible to predict the future that far down the road. Trav doesn't seem to think any of them are that likely, just showing some trendlines. Regardless, what we can do is use shorter term charts to make trades before good or bad news hits:



Consolidated over 2 weeks, once it broke the resistance it took off.


Before that, when to get out of BTC for USD:


I was probably late on getting out, but I wanted to see it cross that trendline first. It's hard to pick the right time, can't just do it any time it drops below EMAs otherwise I'd have been out earlier and missed the upswing to 5k. I think having a lower low is a decent guideline (i.e. after it goes back up after a slight move down, if it moves down more than previously). Getting out before I did was probably guessing that we hit a top based on psychological reasons, but holding all the way down to 3000 was a mistake as well. It's a tough balance, but finding reliable ways to get out sooner would be a huge boost to my ROI.

On September 28 2017 01:00 wobbly_au wrote: Show nested quote + On September 27 2017 23:55 lucky331 wrote: what's wrong with you wobbly? why the need to debase someone? Is he a personal hero of yours? I wasn’t attacking him just his chart of btc.

yes. leave him alone. can you do a better chart of btc?

On September 28 2017 01:21 Daut wrote: I'm with you wobbly, I'm not a fan of his charting technique on that graph, but I think he was just showing some possible trendlines and ways it could play out long term, but it's not realistic. Using monthlies on a 24/7/365 market that moves quickly isn't a good idea, and it's impossible to predict the future that far down the road. Trav doesn't seem to think any of them are that likely, just showing some trendlines. Regardless, what we can do is use shorter term charts to make trades before good or bad news hits: Consolidated over 2 weeks, once it broke the resistance it took off. Before that, when to get out of BTC for USD: I was probably late on getting out, but I wanted to see it cross that trendline first. It's hard to pick the right time, can't just do it any time it drops below EMAs otherwise I'd have been out earlier and missed the upswing to 5k. I think having a lower low is a decent guideline (i.e. after it goes back up after a slight move down, if it moves down more than previously). Getting out before I did was probably guessing that we hit a top based on psychological reasons, but holding all the way down to 3000 was a mistake as well. It's a tough balance, but finding reliable ways to get out sooner would be a huge boost to my ROI.

I was just having a jab because I've also traded alot and trying to predict BTC years down the road is just too ridiculous not to have a laugh at hahaha. especially he doesnt even show lines can goto bust.

GL Daut, no Daut you are still raking it in

daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time?

just curious.

On September 28 2017 03:27 lucky331 wrote: daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time? just curious.

Nah. Bought like 6-10 coins back in 2013 when it was $500-700, then sold all but 2 back when it hit $800. Held onto last 2 coins for years, then started buying then up last summer, good timing. Not as good as genjix or the donald though!

On September 28 2017 03:49 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On September 28 2017 03:27 lucky331 wrote: daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time? just curious. Nah. Bought like 6-10 coins back in 2013 when it was $500-700, then sold all but 2 back when it hit $800. Held onto last 2 coins for years, then started buying then up last summer, good timing. Not as good as genjix or the donald though!

I made like 40k buying and holding then lost it all on dumb cryptos.. Might be up like 6-7k or something... I typically just buy and hold unless support/resistance is SUPER obvious.. (waiting for AA)

On September 28 2017 03:56 wobbly_au wrote: Show nested quote + On September 28 2017 03:49 Daut wrote:   On September 28 2017 03:27 lucky331 wrote: daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time? just curious. Nah. Bought like 6-10 coins back in 2013 when it was $500-700, then sold all but 2 back when it hit $800. Held onto last 2 coins for years, then started buying then up last summer, good timing. Not as good as genjix or the donald though! I made like 40k buying and holding then lost it all on dumb cryptos.. Might be up like 6-7k or something... I typically just buy and hold unless support/resistance is SUPER obvious.. (waiting for AA)

Sounds like pretty bad luck. I'm guessing you bought like 20k worth early this year, then switched to alts in june?

On September 28 2017 03:49 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On September 28 2017 03:27 lucky331 wrote: daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time? just curious. Nah. Bought like 6-10 coins back in 2013 when it was $500-700, then sold all but 2 back when it hit $800. Held onto last 2 coins for years, then started buying then up last summer, good timing. Not as good as genjix or the donald though!

haha. genjix was more like in it for something else, not the profit. the donald though... he's probably a multimillionaire now if he didnt sell.

On September 28 2017 05:34 Daut wrote: Show nested quote + On September 28 2017 03:56 wobbly_au wrote:   On September 28 2017 03:49 Daut wrote:   On September 28 2017 03:27 lucky331 wrote: daut, when genjix started talking about bitcoin here at LP around 2011 - 2012, did you pick it up right away and invested some money in it, or did you get in on mid 2013 when it began to show that it could be something big around that time? just curious. Nah. Bought like 6-10 coins back in 2013 when it was $500-700, then sold all but 2 back when it hit $800. Held onto last 2 coins for years, then started buying then up last summer, good timing. Not as good as genjix or the donald though! I made like 40k buying and holding then lost it all on dumb cryptos.. Might be up like 6-7k or something... I typically just buy and hold unless support/resistance is SUPER obvious.. (waiting for AA) Sounds like pretty bad luck. I'm guessing you bought like 20k worth early this year, then switched to alts in june?

Read is spot on. Had some Dogecoi and ???.... I also almost put 1mil into btc and eth mining but my business partners and I ended up bailing out due to hearing some news around Chinese regulations. (lucky there)

took some profits when it was at 3900 and now it insta jumped to 4300 in less than 24hr FML

when "regular" people want to buy bitcoin it makes me feel like in the movie The Big Short when the brokers realize the strippers are paying for 3 houses... I know there is no moral hazard in BTC and people wanting in pumps the price but they are in to make money not use them which just makes the whole thing feel bubbly

Man rereading this thread is fkn hilarious actually ! Just want to say thanks to steal city for getting me into it at the right timing !