in perfect harmony a piece collides.
a compliment hangs unspoken.
each feeling a memory.
upon the threshold tremble.
and gaze more openly.
hope more fulfilling
and less suited to the occasion.
For the first time in a year, I can honestly say my knee feels good. Not just "good enough, I can still fight if I just work around it" but good and strong. I know I'm starting to get up there in age, having recently turned 28, my back is against the wall and it's now or never. As such there is no "if's this doesn't work I'll..." plans. Burn the fleet! To victory or underground. I've got an amazing group of coaches and teammates around me, now it's time to show the fight world how I do it. First step towards conquering this world begins Jan 30th at Winriver Casino in Redding, Ca. If you're in the Northern California area you owe it to yourself to come and bare witness to my art.
What exactly do people do on a Tuesday night?by RiKD, December 16
So, I have been pondering questions like this. What exactly do people do on a Tuesday night?
I was talking to some people the other day. The idea came up that many times we are all just looking for some ease and comfort. Many times life does not abide. Not that life is constantly providing difficulty and discomfort which it surely can but those moments that are just like erggghhh. Many among us go to the cell phones. Flipping through whatever the fuck ever is better than sitting someplace silently surely?
I have been thinking about this a lot lately though. Most likely because I have plenty of time to. I am unable to work at the moment and lost my license. Recipe for having more time than I know what to do with.
What about the times I get finished with a task and then there is like 15-30 min. before I have to be somewhere, do something?
I was going to go through my Tuesday night today but I will save it. Highlight was caving to some Diablo III action, realizing I needed to update my OS X, getting tired of how long it was taking to download, hemming and hawing, reading some Game of Thrones, hemming and hawing and deciding to watch that new Mission Impossible.
I do not know what I am looking for. I realize I do not know a lot of things.
November was another month when my volume wasn’t really up to par. Once again I had only 60 hours of play, although I’m still very satisfied with the work I’ve done over that period.
I’ve spent a lot of time analyzing and working on my game and my mindset. It wasn’t until now that I fully realized how much I needed it. At the beginning of last month I had huge problems with achieving a sufficient level of concentration before the session. Additionally I got a little cold, so physically I wasn’t feeling that great either. I’ve ended up making few stupid decisions, and my session was over before it even began. After the poor start, and losing a couple of BIs due to many types of tilt, I realized that playing in such state doesn’t make any sense. After taking some days off I returned ‘to the battlefield’, with the assumption that I’m gonna focus on working off the tables, and play only when I absolutely feel like doing it. With each consequent analysis the hunger for playing was rising.
Working on the game theory
For years, I have been spending very little time evaluating my game. I felt, that the amount of time I can allocate for poker over the year is somewhat limited, so I can’t ‘waste’ it on theory. I’m a type of player who learns a lot during the live play. I try to invent new concepts and statistical correlations, which will enable me to go even deeper into my opponents’ thought process. On the other hand, one of the reasons why I avoided working on my game was that I did not have the certain amount of know-how. Throughout all those years, I`ve developed a game plan that was very profitable, despite the fact that my game had a lot of basic leaks (folding too much vs. 3bets, auto-opening PF against aggressive opponents). By constantly putting away working on the game theory until ‘someday’, I’ve reached the point where my arrears were so overwhelming, that I didn`t really know where to start anymore.
Recently I’ve been listening to a lot of mindset-related podcasts by Jared Tendler, joined by Martin Jacobson, Max Stainberg and in particular Phil Galfond (2012). It caught my attention that Phil has been using a system of learning similar to mine for a very long time. Every now and then I was mad at myself for not focusing well enough on the mathematics behind it all, not examining my performance with CRev or Flopzilla. Nonetheless, the fact that of the best poker players in the world uses (used to) a system which resembles mine, allowed me to accept that there is no universal method and that creating new conceptions or game plans is just as meaningful as the in-depth analysis of range.
‘Actually I’m not somebody that does as much away from the table, sitting down, number crunching, HH reviewing. I do however think about a game at the table maybe more than almost everybody, and then away from the table as I’m finished with the session I just continue to think about the hands I`ve played.’
Dealing with the downswing
Over the course of my career I had several periods of DS/BE which lasted more than 2-3 months (the longer was around 200k deals). During those moments there was always a worry that I got left behind, my opponents started to take advantage of my leaks, or I was simply ‘lucky’ and the time came to give away some wins. Apart from the fact that variance was not in my favor, I need to add that the condition of my performance was also quite dreadful, and the lion’s share of $$$ was wasted away by the tilt. If the quality of my decision-making was closer to the optimal level, the adjusted win-rate would have been higher, which would most likely result in shorter DS/BE periods.
The daily revision of the game allows for building confidence and stability, which rely on quality of the decisions, and not variance. Confidence that depends on the latter can be really tricky. When variance swings our way, we might feel overly-confident and not even realize that the game is in fact sub-optimal. On the other hand, losing may lead to the exaggerated perception of the negative emotions: a huge dip in confidence, discouragement, and the fear of not winning in future.
‘When there is a kind of extended downswing, and you are not only obviously losing money, and just losing at the game for such a long time. You worry about the future and, if there is something, maybe you’ve lost something, maybe your opponents are getting better. And you kind of question, whether you gonna be able to win, and be as successful as you were before.’ Phil Galfond
In the end, the thorough analysis let me reach the conclusion that ‘I know that I know nothing’. I acknowledged that my game is far off from the perfect poker (if such a notion even exists) and there will always be some imperfections. Thanks to that, I know which things I can improve upon, and what my weak points are. With a sufficient amount of work I can take my A-game to a brand new level.
New Organization
I’ve also decided to change my timetable and its different variants, which I’ve been using for the last couple of years. In the past I always planned when I play, and when I have my days off. Last year I worked 4 days a week (5 in cases I had no arrangements for Saturday). Possibly it was one of the reasons which contributed to my burnout, as sometimes I felt like a robot. Very often I had days when I completely didn’t want to play and I had to spend like 2-3 hours on concentrating before the session. What’s more, I chose to return to the mode of playing one session a day. What does it entail? I will have to spend more days on reaching the set goals. My main ambition for the next few months is to spend time on poker only when I really want it, and accept that sometimes it’s better to give up on grind and do something entirely different. Of course, I do hope that I will be eager to play more often than not, and that wish goes to all the players out there ;]
Entertainment
Adele is one of my favorite singers. Even though her latest album ‘25’ is in my opinion, her weakest, there are few gems on it – below you can find one of them:
Recently I also saw a film which happened to be on my to-watch list for months. I’m talking about a Polish movie ‘Bogowie’, where Tomasz Kot stars as Doctor Zbigniew Religa. Undoubtedly, it was one of the greatest Polish productions of the last several years, and if Religa’s characterization in the film was anywhere close to the real deal, then he was a truly extraordinary man.
Another Polish movie I really wish to watch is ‘Pod mocnym anio?em’, however, as it is a movie by Wojciech Smarzowski, I need to prepare my mental state for it.
Poker Calculations: Video Pokerby fira, December 06
((Just some random poker calculations I did via brute force. I'd appreciate it if someone more knowledgeable could confirm the legitimacy of these calculations, whether it be the results or the "methods"!))
========================================================================================================================
Option 1: hold Ad:
if we hold just Ad, we discard the other four cards and draw 4 new cards
our total EV should equal:
(chance of getting royal flush * 250) +
(chance of getting straight flush * 50) +
(chance of getting 4OAK * 25) +
(chance of getting full house * 9) +
(chance of getting flush * 6) +
(chance of getting straight * 4) +
(chance of getting 3OAK * 3) +
(chance of getting 2Pair * 2) +
(chance of getting JJ+ * 1)
chance of getting 4OAK =
--4 ways to get four Aces--
{A, A, A, X}
{A, A, X, A}
{A, X, A, A}
{X, A, A, A} (3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48) = 5.10204082E-5 = 1/19,600
--1 way to get four Xs--
{X, X, X, X} (47/50 * 3/49 * 2/48 * 1/47) = 5.10204082E-5 = 1/19,600
Total = 5 * 5.10204082E-5 = 0.000255102041 = 1/3,920
chance of getting full house =
--6 ways to get Aces full--
{A, A, X, X}
{A, X, A, X}
{A, X, X, A}
{X, A, A, X}
{X, A, X, A}
{X, X, A, A} (47/50 * 3/49 * 3/48 * 2/47) = 0.00015306122 = 1/6,533
--4 ways to get X's full--
{A, X, X, X}
{X, A, X, X}
{X, X, A, X}
{X, X, X, A} (47/50 * 3/49 * 2/48 * 3/47) = 0.00015306122 = 1/6,533
Total = 10 * 0.00015306122 = 0.0015306122 = 1/653
chance of getting 3OAK =
--6 ways to get trip Aces--
{A, A, X, Y}
{A, X, A, Y}
{A, X, Y, A}
{X, A, A, Y}
{X, A, Y, A}
{X, Y, A, A} (47/50 * 43/49 * 3/48 * 2/47) = 0.00219387755 = 1/456
--4 ways to get trip Xs--
{X, X, X, Y}
{X, X, Y, X}
{X, Y, X, X}
{Y, X, X, X} (47/50 * 43/49 * 3/48 * 2/47) = 0.00219387755 = 1/456
Total = 10 * 0.00219387755 = 0.0219387755 = 1/46
chance of getting 2Pair =
--10 ways to get Aces up--
{A, X, X, Y}
{A, X, Y, X}
{A, Y, X, X}
{X, A, X, Y}
{Y, A, X, X}
{X, X, A, Y}
{X, Y, A, X}
{X, X, Y, A}
{X, Y, X, A}
{Y, X, X, A} (47/50 * 43/49 * 3/48 * 3/47) = 0.00329081632 = 1/304
--6 ways to get other 2Pair--
{X, X, Y, Y}
{X, Y, X, Y}
{X, Y, Y, X}
{Y, X, X, Y}
{Y, X, Y, X}
{Y, Y, X, X} (47/50 * 3/49 * 43/48 * 3/47) = 0.00329081632 = 1/304
Total = 16 * 0.00329081632 = 0.05265306112 = 1/19
chance of getting JJ+ =
--4 ways to get pair of Aces--
{A, X, Y, Z}
{X, A, Y, Z}
{X, Y, A, Z}
{X, Y, Z, A} = (47/50 * 43/49 * 39/48 * 3/47) = 0.04278061224 = 1/23
--6 ways to get pair of Kings--
{K, K, X, Y}
{K, X, K, Y}
{K, X, Y, K}
{X, K, K, Y}
{X, K, Y, K}
{X, Y, K, K} = (43/50 * 40/49 * 4/48 * 3/47) = 0.00373425966 = 1/268
--6 ways to get pair of Queens--
same as Kings
--6 ways to get pair of Jacks--
{X, Y, J, J} = (43/50 * 40/49 * 3/48 * 2/47) = 0.00186712983 = 1/536
Total = (0.04278061224 * 4) + (0.00373425966 * 12) + (0.00186712983 * 6) = 0.22713634386 = 1/4.4
Total EV of keeping just Ad =
(0.00000434216 * 250) +
(0.00000434216 * 50) +
(0.00025835866 * 25) +
(0.0015306122 * 9) +
(0.00214937038 * 6) +
(0.00194528873 * 4) +
(0.0219387755 * 3) +
(0.05265306112 * 2) +
(0.22713634386 * 1) = 0.4404732941
========================================================================================================================
========================================================================================================================
Option 2 - hold Ad, Jc:
if we hold both Ad and Jc, we discard the other three cards and draw 3 new cards
our total EV should equal:
(chance of getting royal flush * 250) +
(chance of getting straight flush * 50) +
(chance of getting 4OAK * 25) +
(chance of getting full house * 9) +
(chance of getting flush * 6) +
(chance of getting straight * 4) +
(chance of getting 3OAK * 3) +
(chance of getting 2Pair * 2) +
(chance of getting JJ+ * 1)
chance of getting royal flush = 0
chance of getting straight flush = 0
chance of getting 4OAK = (3/50 * 2/49 * 1/48) * 2 = 0.00010204081 = 1/9800
chance of getting full house =
--3 ways to get Aces full of Jacks--
{A, A, J}
{A, J, A}
{J, A, A}
--3 ways to get Jacks full of Aces--
{A, J, J}
{J, A, J}
{J, J, A} = (3/50 * 2/49 * 3/48) = 0.00015306122 = 1/6,533
Total = 6 * 0.00015306122 = 0.00091836732 = 1/1089
Once again I completely fail in the hourly department, as in not putting in enough hours. 46? lol. Just spent a lot of time fucking around with friends and took the entire week of Thanksgiving off. On the upside I am doing well with my efforts to stop paying off when fish bet/raise me. Still donated at least $1000 but that beats last month. These were also like really obvious spots to fold, I.E. fish fixated on board like there was a gun pointed to his head, heavy breathing, aggressive betting pattern completely out of character from previous hands, etc. Man live is such a goldmine when it comes to tells, but I just had to see to make sure I wasnt misreading them. There's a super aggressive black dude I play with sometimes and he is always sitting deep, and often plays 5/10. He said something to another player one night, "ay mang, when the fish bets you fold!" as he snap folded a river raise. I'm pretty sure he's spewy (I've won multiple 50BB shoves vs him with Ace high) but he at least knows that much.
So my primary goal for next month is going to be putting in those damn hours. I keep doubling or trippling up, getting nervous with a 300BB stack and just bailing from the table with as little as 3 hours on a few occasions. For December I am going to just hump it out no matter how deep me and my opponents get, using a basic stoploss in BB's to know when to quit. For instance if I hit 500BB stack or something and lose 200BB's, well I'll consider that losing 2 buyins regardless of my overall profit and quit. There are just too many players making too many mistakes to pass up on this edge.
In the meantime I really want to buy a new toy. I'm looking at a used 370z to replace my current econo crapbox for roughly the same payment. You can pick up one of these for around 22-23k
Cashed at a .5/1 game for 1.2k $ yesterday then this happened today!
Coincidentally i started https://www.reddit.com/r/NoFap/ recently and went to a super sick Tommy Emmanuel concert with my dad who i haven't seen in a while.
Anyway nothing special in terms of gameplay , just basic ABC poker with occasional bluffs
Very nitty, once i stopped trying to bluff the fish i win loads of money lol
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