Soul Crushed to Death

So, I started with a NL2 Roll, and worked my way up to NL5 and felt pretty good about it. I was enjoying NL5 a lot, NL2 is such a cesspool that NL5 seems tame. What I thought was just standard variance downswing, came and never went. And now I'm sitting here with my initial deposit 115k hands later wondering where I went wrong?

I certainly didn't wait until now to start looking for leaks, but I'm feeling extremely lost. As such, Here is what I got heh


Since my knowledge of the game, as well as styles of play have changed vastly of the course of the graph above, I'm not really sure what sample size is best for some of my stats.

Over my last 50k hands i've been running 11/9/3.8 5% 3bet, 28% WTSD 50.9%W$SD 26%agg and 20% Steal. at NL5 I would steal more than 20%, my steal % stats can't be very accurate, as I spent a long time not stealing enough. Although, at NL2 20% is prolly not too far off because I figured the wider calling range/less fold equity would mean that my steal range needs to be more weighted towards value.

My stats are pretty tight, I know. From what I've learned that would mean lower variance, but I have anything but low variance All of this has led me to believe that my problem is Post flop. I'm not really sure how to proceed with a decent analysis of my overall postflop play over 100k hands. Here are some more of my stats:
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Focusing more on the last 40k hands of the graph, and I see my biggest losing hands are AKo and AKs. I'm not sure what exactly it is I'm doing wrong. Looking through my hands I see a few clear mistakes, a few clear coolers, and a few hands, where I know It's a fold against a 15/12/3.5 or less, but against the 65/25/3? ect.

After a closer look, It looks like I don't know how to play TPTK OOP against a wide range on a drawy board. OOP it seems I frequently 3bet AK preflop, and then cbet the flop, and typically if they haven't folded by the turn, I'm beat and pot committed. Is it a good idea to 3bet AK OOP preflop? From what I understand (notmuch) I would say that it is, because when I flop TPTK the stack sizes allow me to comfortably get it in... as well as isolating/squeezing preflop.

Theres like 10 of these, in my top losing AK hands... I 3bet preflop, flop a K or A heads up[, and there is either a straight or flush draw on the board. I Cbet 70% pot. Called. Draw hits or doesn't hit. I Cbet again. and I'm either 3bet shoved on or called down. In my AK hands, theres a good number of hands where i do this and win, but the general trend seems to be that when the draw misses I get my fold equity, and when it hits, they let me pot commit myself to death in the 3bet pot... Any Comments?

There are tons of leaks in my game, but if i knew what they were, they wouldn't be there. For now, it's just time to small ball AK up hardcore and hope I can not repeat my last 40k hands.

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If you're struggling at NL2 or NL5 there are a few things that can be a problem.

First of all, are you playing on FTP? If you don't have rakeback, don't play on FTP. If you do, you should STILL not play on FTP, but it becomes acceptable.

If you're playing 11/9 and not crushing, the issue is something is really wrong with your post-flop play. You're probably missing value-bets or not getting stacks all-in or something. Either that or you're trying to bluff. Maybe both.

Drop your 3bet to 2-3%. Just 3bet QQ+,AK for value and nothing else.

If you want to win, go back to the basics. No bluffing, FULL POT sized valuebets, and DON'T miss value-bets by doing things like check the turn with an overpair.

It is absolutely impossible to NOT crush NL2 and NL5 with these rules.

Never double barrel bluff EVER at these limits. If you have AK in a 3bet pot, don't even cbet and that will probably work out okay.

If you're playing 11/9 and you're not destroying everyone, it's pretty simple to figure out your leaks:

If your redline is flying up, then you are being insane and trying to bluff people at these limits. NOT a good idea and you should fix it by just not betting EVER unless you have top pair or better. That's a good place to start.

If your red line is going down and your not destroying everyone, you are probably missing value all over the place when you have a hand and aren't betting big enough and/or missing bets on various streets. Go full pot every when you have a big hand no matter what and don't stop betting unless you get raised.

And fold one pair if anybody minraises you.

Wow, That's about as good of a response as I could have hoped for... You're advice really makes sense as well. Thanks, you really put it into perspective for me.

I am playing on FTP w/ rakeback. I did this because, I can't play enough -every- month to maintain a decent VIP Status on stars.

I took my initial $5 to $150 and then kept losing until I'd lost over $100. I couldn't figure out what had happened until I found myself back at NL2 with only 25 buyins. After NL2, there's no place you can move down to, so I knew I *had* to find my winning game again. I was going "back to basics." And then I figured out what I had been doing wrong.

I was c-betting and two-barrelling like a maniac, even out of position, I was 3betting too light, I was checking good hands, I was making loose calls thinking my opponent's were bluffing: all-in-all I was being a total fish.

At all stakes in the game, you have to remember the fundamentals. Even at the highest stakes you are playing ABC poker, and you only deviate based on a solid read. The thing is those players have more solid reads there than we do at the micro stakes.

Here is what I think the fundamentals are:

1) Don't play out of position.
When you're not 100% sure a move is profitable, don't do it OOP. Make your profit in position and try not to lose money out of position. Position is absolutely crucial in poker.

2) Bet good hands strongly.
A lot of the time, you will make your opponent's fold their hands with a lot of equity against you. This makes you go from winning 65% of the pot to winning 100% of the pot - a clear gain. The rest of the time, you can get called by worse hands and increase the amount of value you get on your good hands. Checking a good hand is almost always a mistake.

3) Don't bet weak hands.
Bluff when you have a lot of equity in the hand. Don't bluff when you have got nothing. Don't ever bluff if you don't have a good read that your opponent will fold a lot of his range. Just fold your crap hands. Ace high, by the way, is a crap hand. Doesn't matter that you had the nuts when it was preflop.

4) Fold to aggression.
They are bluffing you much less than you think they are. Don't pay off their good hands. Even if they are bluffing you a TON, say 30%, often even with that knowledge it is a fold. Fold all one pair hands to a reraise postflop. Fold all mediocre hands if they are betting at you. Just muck your hand if they are representing a better one.

With these four rules anyone can crush the micro-stakes. In fact, you can crush any stake. What you need at higher stakes is not having smarter rules but just having better reads. Only ever deviate from the basics with a solid read.

Good luck !

as to how to play AK:

3bet AK (rule 2)
bet TPTK (rule 2)
fold to turn raise (rule 4)
check/fold river if they call turn on wet board (rule 3/4).

A better player than me feel free to comment, I'm just trying to work from the basics I just wrote above.