Gadget

Since it's all-star weekend in the NBA I have had a little extra time on my hands, most of which has gone into working on my statistical model I plan on using next year for DFS. I also had the time to compile all my stats so far for my ~4 month DFS career. Here's some graphs/charts for those that may be interested.


This is from a starting BR of $200 with a $200 deposit bonus. I have only been playing close to optimally since half way through January, so keep that in mind. Also, that huge dip at the end is the $1200 error I made by forgetting to set my lineup.







There is a little bit of a breakdown of what game's I'm playing and my ROI in each. My next blog entry will likely be a very basic tutorial on how to approach DFS since that seems like it would help the most people.

Also, if you do not have an account on Fanduel and I have helped you get into DFS in any way, use my referral link https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=therelapse&cnl=da when you sign up. Be sure to search for a promo code as well. There is always one that will give you deposit match up to $200. Thanks guys.

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What's up guys. I had my first big setback in DFS this weekend. I went to visit my girlfriend and was doing DFS on my laptop on Saturday night and I forgot to switch out my dummy lineup for my real lineup. Absolute disaster. I had about 15% of my BR in play, or $1200. I guess it was a $1200 lesson. I now have an alarm set for 6:55pm every night so I never make this mistake again. The good news is that I have had something like 12 winning days in my last 14 including the dummy roster disaster. I feel very good about my edge, and am growing more and more confident in my ability to make money playing DFS. I have settled on 15% being the number I want to stick with as far as amount of my BR in play. I will definitely take some shots with a higher %, but for the most part I will stick with 15%. I'm going to just give my top 4 plays at each position based on Fanduel prices from now on. They are listed in order, so the 1st guy listed I consider to be the best play. Here it goes:

PG:
Jennings(8500)
Paul(8200)
Knight(6600)
Calathes(5100)
*Still looking at San Antonio Guards
*I Like Rondo a bit too with Bradley out

SG:
Hayward(7100)
Stuckey(4700)
Stephenson(7500)
Waiters(5200)

SF:
Deng(5900)
Budinger(3700)
Chandler(5900)
Green(3500)

PF:
Patterson(5100)
Love(11300)
Nene(6800)
Davis(9900)

C:
Pachulia(4300)
Jordan(8300)
Gasol(6700)

GL Everyone.

I also have a question about what I can expect as an hourly winrate for live $1/$2. I have mine calculated so far and I'm up $1270 in 33 hours. That gives me a winrate of about $38 per hour. I feel like I'm running well below expectations so far, but my winrate seems to be around what I would expect. Does anyone have any good data for this?

I'm planning on playing $1/$2 until I have 10k in profits and then I will move up to $2/$5. Any and all tips for building a live BR would be much appreciated. Thanks.

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Comments (11)

Hey guys, I've been grinding live poker and DFS(Daily Fantasy Sports) for the past 2 weeks just about non stop. I'm tossing around the idea of living cheaply off of these 2 sources of income. I wouldn't make that decision until the start of NFL next year because I only play NFL and NBA DFS, but I'm wondering how some of you guys have made the transition to living off of poker. Here is my current situation:

I'm a computer engineer. I graduated college last year and have been working for about 7 months at my first job out of college. I make 75k a year, ~6k a month, and have expenses of about 2k per month, which I would try to reduce to around 1500 if I ever went through with this. Keep in mind that I could probably find another job fairly easily if I needed to.

Ideally about 80% of my income would come from DFS and 20% from poker. I have a DFS bankroll of 8k and a poker bankroll of 4k, I also have 13k in savings and 7k in retirement accounts.

So by the time next September rolls around I would have maybe 20k for DFS and 8k for live poker. I would be playing mostly $200nl live, with some smaller tournaments mixed in. In 4 months of DFS so far I have a 4000% return on my initial investment. That is with no large scores or anything, just grinding daily h2h games. I have quite a large edge, my only concern is that when I start relying on the money, I may have some sort of big downswing. I'm not sure how to calculate my risk or ruin or anything, maybe someone could help me with that? It seems quite low to me, because my biggest downswing to date has been about 15-20% of my BR.

I know the general advice seems to be "finish school", and "don't quit your job", but I think my situation is unique since I have a pretty decent amount of savings, no debt, and a degree in a field that is fairly easy to find work in. Let me know what you think guys.

I'm really bad at writing and I probably left out a ton of details, let me know if anything needs clarifying.

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Comments (10)

I'm going to try to make a little blog entry every Wednesday since it is the biggest NBA fantasy day of the week. I get off work at 4 and rosters lock at 7, so I spend most of that time researching and making lineups, so I'll try to keep this breif.

The first question today is whether to take LeBron/Durant tonight or not. I honestly don't think it's much of a question at all. They both have terrible matchups. OKC is a -15% defensive matchup vs SF's and MIA is a -11% matchup. That is an extremely severe decrease. Unless you're putting your money on the stars coming to play in the big game, the math doesn't add up for taking either of these guys.

PG:
MCW (8300) - Slightly negative matchup (-3.5%) but that number was generated with Avery Bradley in the Lineup. I think this is a +% matchup without Rondo and Bradley. Close spread is a plus as well.
Lowry (8100) - Slightly positive matchup. Spread is large, probably only playing him if DeRozan is out.
Knight (6500) - Positive matchup, but spread is high and minutes are questionable. Not a bad play though.
Augustin (6500) - Good matchup (+5%). If Hinreich misses Augustin will probably be in my lineup.

SG:
Ellis (7200) - Positive matchup (+3.5%), close spread, worried Beverly might guard him a good amount. Will be in my lineup in all liklihood.
Henderson (5700) - Positive matchup (+2.5%), should be getting more shots with Kemba out. Not many people will have him and he has a nice floor.

SF:
Green (5900) - You have to force a few Celtics into your lineup and Green seems to have the most stable role. Huge positive matchup (+17%) and a close spread.
Marion (5100) - His season average(24.3) is almost at his price value, close spread and a slightly positive matchup.

PF:
Davis (9700) - Averaging 2 more FP's than Love over the last 10 games and has a nuetral matchup. I like him over love for 1k less.
Nowitzki (8000) - Good plus matchup (+9%), and a close spread.

C:
Jordan (7500) - He's averaging his price value over the last 10 (37.1), but the matchup is slightly negative and the spread is big.
Turiaf (3500) - Plug him in. Minimum salary, great matchup, proved that he will get good numbers last game when Pekovic got hurt.

A lot can change in the next 2 hours, these are my picks as of now. I registered for some golf this weekend. Let me know if you guys have any picks for that. I plan on doing a little research tonight.


EDIT:
*****Lot's of crazy inactives today. Here's my lineups

FD
MCW
Lowry
Ellis
Gordon
Marion
J Green
Love
A Johnson
Steimsma

DK
MCW
Ellis
Marion
Turiaf
Steimsma
Lowry
Love
Ajinca

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Comments (2)

Is there any interest in daily fantasy sports here? I deposited $200 3 months ago and currently have ~$4400 playing mainly NBA, with some NFL and College Football as well. My edge has to be atleast 20%, if not more, I haven't actually sat down and calculated my stats yet though. If there is a decent amount of interest I will start posting a few times a week with some of my NBA plays, and the reasoning behind it.

Also, started playing live poker again now that I have a good job and can afford it. My local place has this WSOP qualifier thing that runs for 20 weeks, seems like pretty good value. Plus it's always been one of my goals to play in the main event.... I would be interested in some live staking for some larger events(~$200-$500), but I have never done that before and don't know all the specifics. I haven't posted since black friday, but I had a ~25% ROI with 20k in profit in tournaments. I can post the stats if there is any interest in staking. Let me know guys!

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Comments (22)

I'm willing to trade a copy of Dota 2 for pretty much any Steam Game. Best offer wins. I'm not totally sure on the value of Dota 2, let the offers begin.

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Comments (13)

I have 395 on pokerstars or FTP

I want 395 on UB

let me know if you can help

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Comments (1)

I was kind of demoralized after getting 10th in a 7k person tourny last night so I took the rest of the night off after that. I'm ready to go today. I will not be playing many smaller tournies, and will be mainly 6-10 tabling. Here's the schedule.

Full Tilt
$256 - Sunday Brawl
$216 Sunday Mulligan

Stars
$215 - Sunday Warm Up
$215 - Sunday Million
$215 - Second Chance
Sub Total = 1117 + 5% Mark Up
Total = $1173

Im selling 60% of my action. Reply to this thread and send the money if you want a piece. OPR me or look back a couple blog posts to find my stats. I only have about 50 or so tournaments logged on stars, about 7k on FTP.

FTP = TheRelapse
Stars = TheReUp3

Since I cut out the 1.5m GTD, if you sent me:

5% is now worth 8.87%
10% is now worth 17.73%

5% = $58.65
10% = $117.30
25% = $293.25

Thanks guys

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Comments (22)

2 tables left in the Daily 40 grand on stars. this is my first deep run ever on stars, i just got money on there like 3 days ago.

my names TheReUp3

tournament id = 413010496

got 10th

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Comments (2)

Need $100 to $500 on stars,

I can send on FTP or UB

Ill send first to reputable members

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