TenBagger

I am considering selling a percentage of my action for several fantasy basketball leagues. I am currently in 11 leagues and I've spent over 10K in buyins. There are several more leagues that I'm interested in joining and I'd like to reduce my cash outlay and my variance as well. Considering that my ROI in fantasy leagues over the past 10 years has been over 300%, I'd rather not pass up the +EV. The additional time investment from managing 11 leagues and 16 leagues is minimal so I'd like to maximize my EV and participate in as many leagues as possible.

I have not yet decided on the markup but it will certainly be far far less than fair value to the point where I believe it would be massively +EV for any backer. As for my results, quite a few people on this forum will vouch for me. I've finished ITM (usually first) in every single LP fantasy baseball/basketball league over the past 4 years (7 straight cashes). I took first (with NBB) in the high stakes 2+2 league last year and I can provide screenshots for the numerous other first place finishes and cashes in high stakes live leagues that I participate in. I feel as though I have an edge in fantasy basketball against even the toughest competition and my results certainly back that up.

For anyone that decides to buy action, Please note that I will not come in contact with your money. The money should be sent directly to the commissioner of the respective league and you will be paid directly as well. As for the trustworthiness of the commissioner, I can say that I have looked into it and I feel comfortable sending my own money. However, I will provide full details of each commissioner and it will be up to each prospective backer to decide if that person's credentials are satisfactory. If you feel at all uncomfortable with the commissioner's credibility, I advise that you do not participate in that league. If the commissioner ends up not paying out, I will be scammed as well so I am not willing to take on the added liability to make a personal guarantee. I am including this disclaimer so that there is full and fair disclosure. With that said, I have a high degree of confidence in the commissioner of each league that I participate in, to the degree that I am willing to risk my own money. I'd like to add though that there are quite a few people that can vouch for my trustworthiness. Over the past 5+ years that I've been on this forum, I've had many dealings with quite a few users and I'm sure that every single person will attest to the fact that I've been honest and fair.

One backer for each league will be given access to team as a co-manager. However, you will not be given any managerial control. The access is solely for you to view the progress and I will maintain full managerial control over the team.

Here are the leagues that I'm considering:

-$2500 buyin 15 team 10 category auction league (FG made and FT made instead of points). Pays to 3 places, first prize $20K.

-$1500 buyin 9 category auction league. teams and payout TBD

-$1500 buyin 9 category snake draft league. teams and payout TBD

-$1000 buyin 8 category auction league. teams and payout TBD

-$500 buyin 16 team 10 category auction league. Pays to 3 places, first prize $4K.

Note that all leagues are roto and not H2H. Roto is a lot more skill based and has less variance as well. For this reason, I no longer participate in any H2H leagues.

I'm not quite sure of what the markup will be and what the minimum amount is that I would accept. All I can say is that if you are interested, pm me and once I gauge the interest, I'll respond with more details. One thing I am sure of is that I will not sell more than 50% in any league so you can be sure that I am personally and substantially invested as well. Thanks for reading and wish me luck this season!

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Comments (13)

looking to move 2K from FTP -> PS. I'll take smaller trades as well.

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I'm looking to hire several people for a part time job. The successful candidate must possess a strong knowledge of basketball and logic, the ability to multitask and attention to detail.

Position Description:

Your job will be to watch NBA games and to record a detailed log of events that do not show up in the box score. You will often be required to utilize your judgment and an in depth understanding of professional basketball is essential. For example, one of the required tasks is to classify every shot taken throughout the course of the game as one of the following: wide open, open, contested, heavily contested. Accuracy and attention to detail are absolutely required.

Compensation:

You will be paid per game analyzed. Each NBA game runs 48 minutes in live action time and it currently takes me roughly 2 1/2 hours to complete a single game. We are shooting to reduce that time frame to under 2 hours by developing an interface that simplifies the note taking process. The amount of time it takes will also vary depending on your concentration level, your ability to multitask, and your APM. A typical qualified and competent person will earn between $10-$12 per hour. There will also be a variable compensation plan tied to your performance which can increase your hourly rate.

I understand that the hourly rate is quite modest, especially when compared to most poker incomes. However, there is significant value in steady, stress free, supplementary income. The hours are also extremely flexible. You determine how many hours you would like to work so this job can easily fit around the other priorities in your life. There is no time and money spent on commuting since you can work from the comfort of your own home. If you are a student you can scale back or even stop all together during exams and take on more hours during your vacations. If you are a low stakes grinder, a little steady income on the side can help you weather a rough downswing.

If you are interested in the position please send me a PM.

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Comments (8)

Need $165 on FTP, will give PS

edit: transfer completed

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So I got around to reading my subscription to the economist today and there was an interesting "special report" on gambling. The general tone of the report was very favorable and considering the prestige and influence of the economist and how widely read it is among the upper class, I think it will have an impact on public opinion.

http://www.economist.com/node/16507670

there are 11 parts of the report that can be accessed through links in the middle section of the page.

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Comments (4)

I read the following NYTimes article about probabilities yesterday: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/25/chances-are/

And that lead me to purchase this book: http://www.amazon.com/Calculated-Risks-Know-Numbers-Deceive/dp/0743205561

It deals primarily with conditional probability:

"Perhaps the most pulse-quickening topic of all is “conditional probability” — the probability that some event A happens, given (or “conditional” upon) the occurrence of some other event B. It’s a slippery concept, easily conflated with the probability of B given A. They’re not the same, but you have to concentrate to see why. For example, consider the following word problem.

Before going on vacation for a week, you ask your spacey friend to water your ailing plant. Without water, the plant has a 90 percent chance of dying. Even with proper watering, it has a 20 percent chance of dying. And the probability that your friend will forget to water it is 30 percent. (a) What’s the chance that your plant will survive the week? (b) If it’s dead when you return, what’s the chance that your friend forgot to water it? (c) If your friend forgot to water it, what’s the chance it’ll be dead when you return?"

Some interesting statistical concepts:

Simpson's Paradox - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simpson%27s_paradox
Prosecutor's Fallacy - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prosecutor%27s_fallacy
Bayes' Theorem - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Confounding Variables - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confounding
Monte Hall - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem

The ability to properly interpret statistics and to accurately assess probabilities is a key component to success in various games that I play such as poker, fantasy sports and sports betting. However, it is also an important part of making good decisions in everyday life and I think this book has given me a slightly better perspective. A lot of the book is common sense and won't be very useful for anyone with a statistics educational background but I definitely think that it is a recommended read for most people and especially for poker players whose livelihood depends on their ability to use probability to make good decisions.

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Comments (5)

looking to buy action 10% - 20% pieces. must be trustworthy.

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God I have no idea why I'm about to do this, I can just sense the doomswitch coming.

I've been running super hot in basketball betting so far this season and if you read the previous blog entry even my mistakes have been turning out in my favor. A couple people asked me about my strategy.

I have a simple program that gives me basic probabilities and over/unders based on a rudimentary algorithm. It gives me a starting point and from there, I incorporate my own instincts to make some picks. It surely isn't as scientific as I would want it to be and I plan on spending a lot more time improving the algorithm and putting together a more robust model. Ideally, the system would be working off a lot more math and a lot less of my own gut.

I know people out there have massive databases of information with stuff like referee's foul calling tendencies and they are probably a lot more +EV than I am. However, since I've got a ton of money on a ridiculous number of fantasy basketball leagues and I watch almost every single game anyway, I figured I'm at least marginally +EV, especially since I bet on matchbook where the vig (rake) is much smaller.

I swear, the minute I make my picks public, I'm gonna get doomswitched, but whatever, fuck it. here are my bets for tonight:

miami +105 $380.95 to win $400
memphis -134 $400 to win $298.51
Indiana +222 $180.18 to win $400

under 186.5 (NJ/DET) +102 $196.08 to win $200
Over 209 (Mem/Min) -105 $200 to win $190.48

Risking $1357.21 to win $1488.99

Wish me luck and may my heater continue.

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Comments (9)

I had just a few minutes to book all my basketball bets earlier tonight so I was inputting everything really fast. I then realized that I made a huge misclick. My normal bet size is $400 and when betting the moneyline, I stake $400 on the favorite and I bet to profit $400 on the underdog. I meant to bet on the wizards to profit $400 which at roughly +1000 means that I would risk $40. Instead of inputting $400 in the profit box, I put it in the stake box and I confirmed the bet quickly without even noticing. By the time I realized my mistake, my full bet was already matched. It was the first time I've ever made a mistake like this. FUCK!

except my man caron butler went fucking nuts and scored 29 points in the second half and hit a huge fall away 20 footer with .5 seconds left to give me the victory! So while I meant to bet $40 to win $400, my misclick meant that I actually bet $400 to win $4000. SHIP IT!

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Comments (11)

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: 889407

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