Poker Blogs

if we XR the flop and bet the turn with the intention of bluffing the river every time, what combination of turn/river calling frequencies create a profitable bluff?

Let's look at a common BB v BTN XR scenario:

2.5x pre so 5.5bb to the flop

2.75bb cbet and XR to 10.5bb, villain calls

26.5bb to the turn, 88.5bb remaining

now the stack sizes are kind of awkward to get it all in by the river without some slight overbets but w/e we'll use the sizings commonly seen in practice

turn barrel 20bb, villain calls

66.5bb to the river, 68.5bb remaining

Pot'ish sized shove for 68.5bb


let's say villain folds 30% of the time on the turn and 50% of the time on the river, is this a profitable 0 equity bluff?


0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) - 0.5(88.5))

= -6.75 (pretty sure this is right, confirmed w/ representative scenario in CREV)

So a 0 equity bluff with those conditions is not profitable, lets say our bluff has 10% equity. So we plan to shove all rivers as a bluff and lose 90% of the time when called and win 10% when called, whats our EV now?

0.3(26.5) + 0.7(0.5(46.5) + 0.5(0.1(135) - 0.9(88.5)))

= 1.0725 (not so sure about this one, the represntative scenario i came up with in CREV says 0.37... not sure if i setup the CREV scenario wrong or if this EV math is wrong)


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Hey guys,

came out to LV to test the waters.

First couple cash sessions were hell to say the least, then had a great session at the mirage and a deep run in some $300 100ks.

Got a great room with a fellow player here and his girl, place is extremely nice for a great price.

So if ur in LV just drop me a msg, i'll post some pics when i get to it with my phone, really nice place.

Happy to be back in the poker realm.

#needanherbalconnection #PlzhelpwiththatLP PM ME~!!!

#grindingmyassoff
#studying

GL everyone,
Ryan Neilly


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back soon


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hey guys, today we did the 270+30 wynn, got really deep but couldnt hit AJhh on 566hh board, took some time off and booked my first winnin session so far @ CG's. not huge but goin in the right direction.

Tried out the Mirage, loved it. nice $2 comp bonuses too

said fuck it, take live serious, took out a few bills intead of 1bi and yeah that worked well. lets keep it rollin.

1 hand i wanna go over, im not 100% sure how you guys would play this.

ep limps (hes quite tight) - limper behind, i decide to limp A6ss on 200bb cuz well hes tight as hell and betting almost every board. idk if he even has a raise range..

so flop comes Q92cc, i have A6cc, he pots the flop, i was in CO but had the button, i opted to flat the pot bet, turn 4d, he bets $45, he has $300 behind, i have him covered, whats your play?? call raise fold? all seemed good, calling bloats a huge pot and well i can still bluff TJ if i miss, folding is fine since im 19 invested and if i hit i probably wont get paid on clubs too often, atleast not for a large bet since its pretty transparent imo.. raising gives me options altho the texture sux, so i think flop reraise is best.

honestly i just folded cuz i didn't see myself getting paid off if i hit.

what are your thoughts, we were both about 200bb deep, he just went pot pot, i had NFD in MP, reward was good but risk seemed high..

let me know what you guys do here OTT please.

Thanks!
Ryan


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God. I'm like in a maze that I can't get out. I'm going in circles and not feeling fulfilled with life.


I wake up and do things I don't care about. My days pass by. I'm feeling empty inside. I got a girlfriend for two years that made the emptiness go away. She left me and now it's back. WTF. I want friends and life experiences. I had that when I was younger but ever since I started playing poker, I felt like making money was better than spending time elsewhere. I used to make solid solid money. Now it's okay... still better than an entry level job, but I'm starting to wonder more there is to life. My lifestyle is non-existent. Should I move to a city and know no one and start over? Like... fuck. Only people I know right now are my parents, my friends from school that kind of have their own lives now. My ex that I keep texting with no response. I'm almost 28... :X


I think eating and exercising is huge in mood improvement. Let me add that I'm pretty bad socially so I don't get out often. I'm just craving that human contact. For whatever reason I don't feel it with my parents, only with my GF. Man..... any words of wisdom for me? AGAIN. Haha


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So I'm doing a live show with Uri Peleg tomorrow
And as part of it we'll do some heartstone action
So I had to try it as part of the research
It's now 5:41 am and I'm still up ffs.



Priest so op btw

Anyone here playing?
I'll have some struggles with deleting this thing for sure tomorrow :D


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Hey guys, been here for about 36 hours so far.

Last night I made my way over to the venetian, seems like the best 1/2 in town.

early on we had a nicedouble up, then get stacked on a J66ss 3d(2flush turn) Qx river he bombs...
he bets every hand.... i have to call turn n river.. 46o. ++ BI for 150, peak 325,finish 86. fml.

day 2,feeling way better today things lookin good, get the thevenetianaround 11am.

grind it out,150 to about 250,then this handhappens.

seat 2 is playing about 35/30 3-4 AF but does check marginalspots to showdown (JJ on Q4567 3way)

I open KK UTG+1,station fish calls (hes in 400 so far) - sb has 400 hes a laggy reg. (for 1/2)

945ccx

36 in pot i bet 27, station fish (-400 player) flats - sb tank jams. i had roughly 60bb behind,hes beenlag as hell...betting 60with overs n shit multiway...

i think a few seconds, jam.

he has 555. other player tp+fd.

miss king.

-150 today.
-75 yesterday.
taxi fees $60

fml.
lol

online poker!!

lol gotta hold those, what u guys think about the KK 3 way (player A wasa fishplayer Bseemed solid reg, he wasby far the most aggro at the table,me being #2 or #3 aggro on the table.

just bet fold? i had 150or so i think start of hand - otb had 100, he had 400, so that changes his allin a lot since its vs 75bb and a 50bb station, but that stations range was really wide.

you fold or call?

Thanks,
Ryan Neilly


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If i have 50% to win a game at sc2, and Baal also has 50% to win a game at sc2. If we both play a game, the odds at least one of us wins is 75%. Everyone should agree with this.


Now lets say we both study for a true/false exam, and we're both expected to be right on 75% of the answers. Assuming all questions are equally difficult, what is the odds we are right on a question where we agree on the answer? Is it still 75%? or is it more? Can it be 93.75%?

Now here is the whole point of this.

Let's say i'm a winning sport better, and on close fights of -105/-105 odds, i am right about 75% of the time.
Baal is also a winning sport better, who's right 75% of the time.
If we both agree on a bet, does it mean we're going to be right over 75% of the time?

Then, let's say there is 10 winning sport bettors like us. If all other 9 winning sport betters agree on something, can it make sense to go against them if i disagree with them, or should i just avoid betting that fight?


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Less than 40hrs logged this year, that's about to change.
I'm feeling hungry to play, let's roll!

Vegas!
http://i.imgur.com/lcRALho.jpg


Cheers!




NSFW
+ Show Spoiler +

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https://puu.sh/i8rGc/6857ebf4c9.png
wp imo


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um hi lp.

i used to post autistic shit here and i was really bad at poker.

so like ~2yrs ago i made the decision to go to korea to play dota, and i came out a loser time and time again.

i lost like every tourney i played in, got 0-7'd in some philippine lan, it was rough shit.


but today, after all the failures and shit, i made a small progress.

i'm going to TI5.

i lurk still, and i like it here because i can relate to you guys more. There's a lot of insights that seem to pop here and there amongst the first gen and second gen gamers that are maturing and moving on with life. Never change LP.

anyway, thanks guys.


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Here are my May stats. It was really frustrating overall I was doing okay and on pace for ~190 hours at 2/5 but an incident where I broke my glasses made me uncomfortable playing long without good vision. I realized that 200 hours probably is unsustainable long term for me and I decided with the world series generating traffic it would be a good time to try to make 5/10 my main game long-term. I think the world-series has definitely given me some drive to take shots overall. Seeing huge games of all different types run has alot of allure. I have a feeling that the sky is the limit and I feel that there is a certain level of glamor associated playing the bigger games around in Vegas (although different people might have different opinions about this). My plan was to take a few days to ease into it by playing short sessions but unfortunately today's session did not go well at all. No idea if I am ever going to get out of low-stakes and build a decent net-worth.

http://i.imgur.com/KWnohLr.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/1LiRxVe.jpg

UTG woman opens to 3x to 30. UTG+1 Calls. Hero 3-bet small from MP with KK to 100. CO cold calls, folds to BB who 4 bets to ~750 with 80 or so behind. Hero all-in, CO Folds. Axxxx lose to AK.

Hero ~1350, Villains both cover
UTG+1 opens 4x to 40, MP Calls, Hero SB with AcAs 3-bets to 140, Call-Call. Flop 9s7c3s Check-Check-Check. Turn 2c Check-UTG Bets 260, Folds, Hero raises to 520, Calls. Hero announces all-in (blind) with ~1500 in pot and ~700 behind, river comes Club and villain takes it down with Kc9c

Anyway I'm not entire sure what my play is at this point. Around 45k at this point.

/userpoll/draw.php?poll_id=1426
Poll: What's my play?
(Vote): Try to keep grind 5/10
(Vote): Venetian 2/5, Wynn 2/5, Aria 2/5
(Vote): Other





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Just trying to warn my fellow human beings, don't give yourself unnecessary body aches/pains like me .

I've been building up lower back inflammation to the point where it's uncomfortable for me now to lean forward for an extended period of time while taking a shit, and now I've just strained my groin pretty bad by just transitioning between hip flexor stretches.

I've been doing doing 5x5/3x5 stronglifts for a while (used to do bro-splits) and I'd usually do a lower body workouts with squats + deadlifts, an upper body workout with bench press + Overhead presses, and another upper body workout with pullups/chin-ups + rows each about 2x per week. I would do the first set of three workouts three days in a row at about 90% ish of my PR's, and then the second set of three workouts at about 60-70% of PR's and just keep alternating with about a rest day or two between each 3 days. I also would add accessory lifts such as curls, lateral raises for shoulders, etc. for aesthetic reasons.

I'd say my strength and muscle mass have progressed pretty well but now REGRET NOT DOING any consistent stretching regimen post workout, any mid-section strengthening exercises (planks, leg raises, etc.), and any consistent cardio post workout or in between lifting sessions. Now my lower back has gotten excessively tight, and I've lost some mobility.

Point is,
don't skip them stretches, do light cardio in between sessions, take your de-loads seriously (back-off workouts), and btw don't down to much for long periods of time like I consistently do : ( .

Live well my fellow LPers


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hey guys, im wondering about online poker in vegas, its been a while since I been that out that way.

do huds work with wsop.com?

what sites are running in LV?

how long do cashout processes take?

whats the best site there?

How are the games? Similar to Bovada I imagine?

Where you guys think the softest 1/2 games are?

Anyone know of any great cheaper MTT series that has great ROI I should be in?

Asking for advices if you can guys!

GL!

Thanks,
Ryan Neilly


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For those of you into Dota 2, liquidpoker member Sunbhie will be participating over the next couple days for a spot at The International 5. His team, MVP Hot 6ix, has a decent chance at walking away with a spot in the tournament, but the competition is tough. If you would like to check it out, his first game is tonight and you can find it on twitch at 10:30PM PST, 1:30AM EST.


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How much does it cost to create a site like runitonce? How hard is it to build? I'm trying to gather more information because I want to hire someone to build it and I don't want to get ripped off. Thanks for the help.


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This place no longer exist. I miss it. Or maybe that night with friends hanging (literally) around
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_fY_FQ_Imk&feature=youtu.be

how do you post a video instead of the link?


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