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Raven Paradox by failsafe, September 24


As related to my comment regarding "into infinity."

1. All Ravens are black
2. Therefore everything that is not black is not a Raven

This seems intuitive.

To be not-Black means you are not a Raven.

Why is this a problem? It is not.

It is a mode of perception we are commenting on. We suppose probability statements are non-infinite (they are not generative process).

There is no point supposing the sighting of green apple increases the probability of anything other than green apples.

Either we do not understand green apples or we do not understand black ravens.

There is no paradox.


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quick 1 minute python question by Into Infinity, September 22


i'm trying to teach myself how to do some python and i've run into this problem multiple times, and what better place to ask then LP?

tried googling but maybe i'm just getting old and have a short attention span now or just suck at looking for answers online



def x(y):
if y == 0:
print("Turn on")
y = 1
else:
print("Turn off")
y = 0

when X runs (y = 0 by default), y doesn't update to 1 so the switch stays off.
from my understanding, something about each X being a separate instance or perimeters can't be variables or something something i don't fucking know. how do i fix this


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poker math problem by Stroggoz, September 21


i got this problem and thought of LP

The Chevalier de M´er´e (1650s) won alot of money gambling on throwing at
least one 6 after four throws of a single fair six-sided die. Is the probability of this event occuring
greater than or less than 1/2
?



spoiler:

my working:

Ax =x sixes per 4 dice rolls

our sample space

n(s)=1296, n(A1)= (5x5x5x1)x(4c1)=500
n(A2)= (5x5x1x1)x(4c2)=150
n(A3)= (5x1x1x1)x(4c3)=20
n(A4) = (1x1x1x1)x(4c4) =1

P(A1UA2UA3UA4) =n(A1UA2UA3UA4)/n(A) =.5177




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New Song by K40Cheddar, September 18


Hey LP.

Made a new song. It is a classical piece. Let me know what you think about this one.

Thanks,




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Absurd Ruling Experience by HungarianGOD, September 17


Hey guys,
I got pretty upset last night by a situation at a casino, which doesn't happen very often (once every year or 2 maybe). This one I've gotten more upset with time passing and not less, so I thought I'd make a post about it to get it off my chest or perhaps get feedback from you guys saying that it's not as ridiculous as I think.

Some brief background, as I kind of feel this went into me being taken advantage of. I have an extremely strong reputation at the casino for being honest, extremely generous, teaching people things or sharing poker ideas, and very cool when bad things happen to me or I run bad. I probably take this to an absurd extent. A few examples from most normal to most extreme:

Going busto through series of absolutely absurd suckouts, will still always just tap table and say nice hand.

Never really call floor on anyone for anything; if they did something but meant to do something else, I usually let them take it back and do what they intended.

When people have said that I had more in my stack than they thought I did (for instance if they claim a black or a couple of black chips were not in clear view), after winning I just say "alrighty, I guess the $200 doesn't play then if you couldn't see it clearly".

I often let people retrieve their hands out of the muck if I am fairly certain which two cards of the muck are theirs; a couple of times someone has mucked and said 'oh fuck no I had a straight' and let them take it back for a win or for a chop.

There are cases where when someone asks about my hand when we are heads up (during the hand), I give them full range info and how to think about the hand. ie. I bet $900 into $500, they are like "what do you have", and I'm like "well I have these hands in my range I would have 3-bet preflop so I probably don't have those, most 2-pair I'm check-raising on the flop, this bet-sizing almost certainly polarizes my range so you are probably either against the nut-flush here, or I had 1-pair with the nutflush blocker that had showdown value until you bet the river, in which case I decided to turn it into a bluff. So I guess the important thing for you to think about is do I show up with hands that have a pair and a nut-flush blocker too much, in which case I'm bluffing too much in this spot and you should call, or do I just have the nuts too much here, in which case you should just fold". I've always liked to teach/help people out, although I know in the poker community specifically that's frowned upon. Sorry

There has been one case where in a weird multi-way running it multiple times in PLO, there was a sidepot between me and this other guy (who had the nut straight at this point), and he lost to me in the first runout to a higher straight, and to a fullhouse to the 3rd guy in the hand in the 2nd runout. He started getting upset about the running it more than once or something, and he said "I had the nut-straight" and some expletive, a then mucks his hand. Dealer collects it in a way that is irretrievable, cards woven into the rest of the muck. One of the players told him that he was entitled to half of the sidepot with the lower straight (which was about $450, it was a large pot, like $4000). I have played with this person a handful of times and felt he was pretty trustworthy, so I told him he could just take half of the side, even though nobody at the table actually saw his cards. Please note: even for me this is an extreme case, I would only do this very rarely.



So here is the hand (I am messing up some preflop action but it doesn't matter). I have AcKc9h4h in the big (with clubs) in 5/5/10 PLO with $1500, someone limps in, opens to $40, villain calls, I call, limper 3-bet, fold, call call. Flop is 6s4s4c , pot is $455 or something. Villian checks, I check, limp-raiser checks. turn 3c, villain pots it, I call (with intention of calling any boating cards, and evaluating on ace-high flush cards), other person folds. River 9d, villain goes allin for my 950, I instacall, and he says "did you hit the 9 on the river", I said "yes I did". He stands up, says "Mother-Fucker", and hurls his cards face-down in my direction. The person next to me was hit by one card, I was hit by one or 2; at least one of the cards ended up staying on the felt, I think 1 ended up face up on the bumper, and 2 flew off onto the floor. People are kind of looking around awkwardly, I kind of wait around for a few seconds as a floor is nearby (that I thought had seen most of what had been going on) and starts walking up to the table. Purely out of courtesy (especially since this person was upset, which I don't like), I open up my hand to show that I indeed hit the 9 on the river for a full-house. Guy says "Oh wait, I was asking you if you had nines full, I can beat that. I have 6s full", frantically gets up from his chair to walk around the table retrieving the cards from the ground (floor is standing right here at the table now btw), says "I promise I had this 66 in my hand". I was like "uhh you threw your cards at me off the table man", but the floor right there rules that he will NOT kill the winning hand after guy finds the sixes on the floor despite just hurling it off the table, and his sixes full play over my fours full for the $3,200.

After the pot was pushed to the guy I told him in the most straight-faced calm dead-pan that he should be careful doing that, because at most casinos if you fling your hand at players off of the table, it's usually considered a muck.

Anyway I feel pretty taken advantage of here; I feel that the floor did that because they know I would not ever make a big fuss about it and take it well, where this person already was causing a huge ruckus just because he thought he lost a fucking hand. Either way, I think my days of being overly kind to everyone I play against might be over.


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Selling BTC by MiPwnYa, September 17


I've got quite a few bitcoins and I'd like to sell them for Neteller USD, Skrill USD or Skrill Euro.
PM me if interested (I'll require you to send first unless a notorious trustworthy LPer can vouch for you, or unless you're a trustworthy LPer yourself :D)



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$50 for your time by MiPwnYa, September 16


Hi guys,
I need a favour I promised a friend of mine I'd help her out with her stats assignment but I got sick games to grind and really can't be bothered to do it. It looks fairly easy and shouldn't take too long. I'd ship $50 on stars/skrill/neteller/btc to whoever would be kind enough to do it for me It's due in about 9 hours so time is of the essence I could potentially throw in some PLO content I recorded for students recently as well.
Here's the assignment :

https://s4.postimg.org/u0k9wea5l/S_4423825.jpg

https://s4.postimg.org/70dmk2cbt/S_4423834.jpg

https://s4.postimg.org/tdld6vd9l/S_4423836.jpg

PM me if you wanna help out
Cheers,

Quentin

edit: Got someone to do it. Thanks a bunch.




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Rational Suicide by failsafe, September 11


There is a bunch of stuff I want to do after I die. I don't want to sit around for eternity telling stories about my impending death. Wouldn't it be great

EU(afterlife) > EU(life) the afterlife provides happiness I could just randomly die

All my problems could be solved the humour of my impending death "wouldn't it be great if failsafe died before/after X"


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HTC Vive by NewbSaibot, September 10


Dunno how many nerds we have here, but I'm sure most of you have probably heard of the new virtual reality headsets. I lit my allowance money on fire in the early 90's to play those shitty VR machines they had in the arcade, bought an Oculus development kit when it came out just to see what all the hype was about, bought a Galaxy S6 smartphone just so I could use GearVR with it, and had been waiting to see who the victor would be in the new Oculus vs Valve wars. Finally some local shops had both on display for customers to demo with so I was able to experience both and decide which one was best for me.

Hands down the HTC vive is the most incredible gaming experience I have ever received. Oculus is under the belief that gamers wont really want to walk around in a VR environment, that we'll all eventually prefer to just sit down and hold a controller and play cockpit simulators or something. They dont really support this whole "roomscale" thing that involves being able to freeroam around in empty space. Valve on the other hand see's it the exact opposite, that being able to just look around is a gimmick, and that the real power in VR is being able to move around. Personally I think Valve couldnt be more right. I dont have a very big play space, however even just being able to walk 2 steps forward or backwards is game changing. The tiny head movements and bobbing you experience as a bipedal species are perfectly tracked by the Vive. When you tilt your head to lean down and look at something it's all there. These experiences are sorely lacking in the Oculus Rift which usually just has you sitting there looking straight ahead. Sure you can look and lean anywhere you want in the Rift too, however there is no incentive to do so. Most of their games are designed to just look 3D without the need to actually look anywhere. Vive games go out of their way to encourage you to move around and explore the area. When you reach the confines of your playspace you can "teleport" further down the road and just start walking the opposite direction. It sounds silly but it makes all the difference.

I havent even purchased any games yet, the little demo suite valve provides so far is astounding. So much in fact that Vive demo's have more playability than full blown Rift games. It is truly an amazing experience. Both systems cost the same, $800 USD (if you want wireless VR touch controllers at least) and Oculus may eventually get with the program and start encouraging roomscale development. Any dev could produce roomscale games if they wanted, they just dont seem to be doing it yet. But if you have some disposable income I highly recommend you try it. If you get bored of the system, sell it on ebay and consider the loss as just rent for VR for the few months you keep it.


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So Glad This Site is Still Around by Benzooor, September 09


Just want to say how much I've enjoyed discussing / posting hands with you guys and reading through some of the old threads on here.

It's weird how many of your usernames I recognize, also. I used to lurk the fuck out of this site and I can credit a ton of my early development as a player to reading blogs / trawling hand analysis threads.

Anyway, just happy -- even though it's mostly dead -- to see that there's still a few of us kickin' around


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Complexity Math by failsafe, September 06


As you know there are -? to ? R numbers. Therefore there are 2? R numbers and density of R is interval-identical. Then there is ? R numbers between [0,1].

R is the real numbers of course.

So then we are dealing with a simple construction that everyone understands:

±(... _ _ . _ _ ...)

And we just fill in the blanks with numbers: 0, 1, 2, ..., 9

But which numbers come up with most? There are obviously one of each number so it is just a question of selection.

Notice however that . denotes a property of revolving around 0, and could be just as well:

±(..._ _ 0 _ _...)

Isn't that frightening lOL.






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August - 200 Deposit to 8k+ in 31 days by Benzooor, September 05


This blog has brought back some serious memories, man... It's insane to see the way I looked at life those many years ago.

Brief summary of the last several years... I've always played a bit of poker, but mostly just playing the 3-5 game at my local casino. I was profitable but not insanely so, and usually would spend the profits on travel. Last year I went to Thailand/Cambodia and it was 100% from live poker profits, so that was nice.

Mostly I have focused on my career, where I've got a very comfortable salary now (about 4x what I was making the last time I posted here), and on my poetry. I've been able to perform poetry in a variety of cool places over the last couple of years, including a gala at a Frank Lloyd Wright house, an opening of a bookstore bar, on stage in more than one local showcase, etc. I also won the State Championship "Haiku Deathmatch" last year, which was a blast.

I moved to a place right downtown and am quite active within the local community. Since my job is full-time remote, I tend to go out a lot and frequent the local bars/restaurants, even if it's just to have a salad and read my novel.

In July an old poker buddy of mine was telling me about Bovada & Bitcoin, and how nice the payouts were. He was getting cash within 24 hours, rivaling the golden age of Stars eChecks. I thought I'd give it a shot as I'd uninstalled all video games a few months ago and it might be fun to play online again.

I deposited $200 via bitcoin (circle > blockchain > bovada) and started playing 25NL Zone and a few MTTs. I wasn't really trying to make money or even that worried about bankroll, but I did enjoy the "back to basics" of it all. I realized that I was basically still playing the same poker for the last 5 years and I was behind the times. I hit the books, installed a PT4 trial, and decided I was going to really focus on improving my game. I was successful at 25NL but had to learn a lot of lessons. My positional game and preflop strategy was actually awful. I did a lot of reading and spent time on 2p2 as well as combing my database results. I was studying a couple of hours a day and could feel myself improving quickly.

I made a deep run in a tournament for about $250, and with a bankroll of about $650 I started playing 25NL Heads Up cash. I had some learning to do, but HU Cash has always been my favorite game, and I was able to beat that level quite handily at nearly 30bb/100 over ~5k hands. That, combined with some small wins from betting on League of Legends (the lines for some of the games are REALLY not good), gave me a BR of about $1.5k. I started taking shots at 100NLz, since the 50NLz never runs on Bovada. That went well and I was beating 100NLz at 10bb/100 over ~15k hands. I played some 50NL and 100NL HU, with more realistic winrates but still profiting about $900 over ~9k hands between the two limits. I need to do some more studying/improving to beat 100NL-400NL HU now, as the players there seem pretty solid overall. I can still hang, but I'm certainly not a favorite above 100NL.

I've been BR managing pretty darn aggressively, as this bankroll is entirely "fun money," and I'm still working my job / etc. At around $4k in my roll I began taking shots at 200NL 6max and again did pretty well. I'm beating that limit for ~15bb/100 over ~7k hands currently. With the HUD & more player dependent reads, as well as the general softness of these games on Bovada, I think a 15bb/100 winrate long term is not unrealistic. The games are really that soft. 4-table maximum allows me to pay great attention to the games.

Once at around $6k I started playing some 400NL and have run like Jesus there over my first 2,500 hands (I won a KK v AA aipf, and I've held in some very large 60-40 stituations, etc). I'm definitely far above expectation, but I also think that as long as I continue playing properly I can be a winner at these stakes. My All-In adjusted rate is 22bb/100 over this small sample, but most of that is luck I believe. I need to keep reading and improving if I'm going to win long term, but I think I can do it. Again, the games on Bovada are extremely soft. The swings can be pretty large, so I've got a strict stoploss where I will move back down to 200NL.

The biggest thing I have going for me this time around is discipline and emotional stability. I used to tilt pretty badly, but now I am much older and much more stable. I have not tilted, live or online, in a long time. I think being generally happy with my life and situation helps me view poker abstractly. I've also been playing off and on for about 11 years now, so I'm no longer as amazed at variance.

All in all, with Esports + Tourney profits, I've turned that $200 deposit into nearly $9k.

Giraffe:
http://i.imgur.com/isY6KBm.png

So nostalgic to be posting in this community again. Hope everyone is doing well.


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final hands at showdown by PolarFox, September 05


how often should i be losing two pairs and sets? over the past 50k hands it's been 50% for me. i took a total of my hands where im 66% on the flop and for the past fucking 50k hands, guess what? ive been losing at a 66% fucking rate. what the fuck is going on


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WCG-Ben86 drama by ClouD87, September 04


http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/...eport/wcgrider-ben86-dispute-1627174/
^_^


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House of the Scorpion by failsafe, September 04


http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=l...44b379cdd0e7c3o0&mode=overlay&first=1

There is a bigger map in the second novel.

What I was wondering after reading this series, where you can see that the United States government and the government of Mexico (Aztlan) have sanctioned a small strip of land for nations ranging from: Ecstasy, Hash, Opium, and Cocaine to Ketamine is why online poker is not more popular because it is illegal. Is it this hard to run online illegal that we cannot run online illegal like offline illegal.

There is still a big market for drugs offline not online but we can't run the drug market online and it seems we can't run the poker market online. Why if poker is illegal is it not more popular


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Best month so far by ClouD87, August 31


16.250€ with RB and live
never 20k BabyRage FeelsBadMan :gun:
http://i.imgur.com/CDJNZAg.png


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Good bye poker. Hello eSports by Seobombisgay, August 28


It's been a while, but I'm happy to say I finally left the online gambling industry. My short 3-year career in the online gambling industry has been both life-changing and eye-opening as I was able to work on a product that essentially shaped me into who I am today. Initially, when there were high hopes for online poker, especially in NJ, I was very involved with poker. Unfortunately, the online gambling companies I worked for and the rest of the industry saw that it was MUCH easier to make money in casino, so majority of my focus eventually became casino. Unfortunately, this involves sucking people into a game that they can never win in the long-run. We liked stupid. The more lives we ruined, the better we were off. And I witnessed this in-person when I visited a VIP slot player to gift her a free XBox One with Minecraft for her 8 year old daughter. Little did I know that she lived in a run-down apartment and it was heartbreaking to hear that she couldn't take advantage of the $1000 deposit bonus because she had no money. Luckily, the company was sold and I was able to transition out and into esports.

I've now joined an esports start-up where we pair gamers with coaches for games like SC, Hearthstone, Lol, Dota, etc. It feels pretty good knowing that my work actually benefits society for once, so I hope to stay in esports. I'm also working with people that aren't trying to screw each other to benefit themselves, so that's another huge plus. Since LP is esports related, thought you'd guys appreciate this update.

Anyway, got that off my chest. I'll update again next time.

Also mods.... Can I change my name? I made this name in high school cuz I played HUSNG and I wanted people to think that I was an immature noob, which I was.


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Legendary by failsafe, August 23


Anyone else interested in Legendary products?

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B01..._aui_detailpage_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I'm considering purchasing these for my swimsuit collection. I primarily only wear swim suits and typically can't afford anything shorter. The strings on this suit are pretty unusual for Legendary so I'm not sure if I'll go through with these.

If I could thin out I'd go with these:

https://www.amazon.com/Boss-Piranha-F...141123011&keywords=hugo+boss+swimsuit

Anyone else have trouble slimming down or is everyone on the karate buzz


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Monitors by Smuft, August 22


Since the tech threads usually get a lot of attention and good advice thought this would be a good place to ask:

Which monitors are worth considering for poker?

notes:
- not for gaming so I don't care about >60hz refresh rates
- higher resolutions are better but I'm not married to getting 4k if there are high quality good value options at lower resolutions, although 4k is preferred
- viewing angle is important so only the best panel types (IPS only I think?)
- no budget but not going to buy something obscene and still looking for good value:quality ratio
- will probably buy 2 of them
- sometimes I put monitors in check-in when travelling so the huge ones (40"+ are out), ideal size is unknown probably 27-30' range


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since i cant upload hands properly by PolarFox, August 21


im getting really fucking tired of losing every time i have two pair
how the FUCK do i play two pair? i have it as standard to fold flopped two pair, and it's served me right in so many fucking spots, albeit results oriented.

UTG: 112.5 BB
MP: 125 BB
CO: 155.5 BB
Hero (BTN): 110.5 BB
SB: 40.5 BB
BB: 102.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ad Jh
UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3.5 BB, fold, fold, UTG raises to 7 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

Flop : (15.5 BB, 2 players) 2h Js 6d
UTG bets 4 BB, Hero calls 4 BB

Turn : (23.5 BB, 2 players) Ah
UTG bets 15 BB, Hero raises to 99.5 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 84.5 BB

River : (222.5 BB, 2 players) 7c

UTG shows As Ac (Three of a Kind, Aces)
(Pre 92%, Flop 91%, Turn 100%)

Hero shows Ad Jh (Two Pair, Aces and Jacks)
(Pre 8%, Flop 9%, Turn 0%)

UTG wins 211.5 BB


Guy on the second hand bluffs too much and almost every chance he can get. I lost every top pair today, as per the usual. I should start folding those, I guess.


SB: 104 BB
BB: 201.5 BB
UTG: 103.5 BB
MP: 97 BB
Hero (CO): 100 BB
BTN: 124 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qc As
fold, MP raises to 2.5 BB, Hero calls 2.5 BB, fold, SB raises to 10 BB, fold, fold, Hero calls 7.5 BB

Flop : (23.5 BB, 2 players) 2s 6c 6d
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn : (23.5 BB, 2 players) Ah
SB bets 18 BB, Hero calls 18 BB

River : (59.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
SB bets 50 BB, Hero calls 50 BB

SB shows Kc Ad (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 75%, Flop 80%, Turn 90%)

Hero shows Qc As (Two Pair, Aces and Sixes)
(Pre 25%, Flop 20%, Turn 10%)

SB wins 152 BB


Then there's this guy, who loves to stack off with AJo.


CO: 40 BB
BTN: 110.5 BB
SB: 106.5 BB
BB: 172.5 BB
Hero (UTG): 100 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ac Kc
Hero raises to 3.5 BB, CO raises to 40 BB and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 36.5 BB

Flop : (81.5 BB, 2 players) 2s 9s Jd

Turn : (81.5 BB, 2 players) 7c

River : (81.5 BB, 2 players) 8d

CO shows Qc Qd (One Pair, Queens)
(Pre 54%, Flop 76%, Turn 86%)

Hero shows Ac Kc (High Card, Ace)
(Pre 46%, Flop 24%, Turn 14%)

CO wins 77.5 BB


This guy has a cbet of about 70.


UTG: 176 BB
CO: 40 BB
BTN: 183.5 BB
SB: 100 BB
Hero (BB): 105.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 7h 9h
fold, CO raises to 2 BB, BTN calls 2 BB, fold, Hero calls 1 BB

Flop : (6.5 BB, 3 players) 9s 8h 4c
Hero checks, CO checks, BTN bets 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB, fold

Turn : (12.5 BB, 2 players) 5c
Hero checks, BTN bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

River : (28.5 BB, 2 players) 4d
Hero checks, BTN bets 13.5 BB, Hero calls 13.5 BB

BTN shows Ts Td (Two Pair, Tens and Fours)
(Pre 81%, Flop 77%, Turn 80%)

Hero shows 7h 9h (Two Pair, Nines and Fours)
(Pre 19%, Flop 23%, Turn 20%)

BTN wins 53 BB


Best hand of the day?

UTG: 40 BB
MP: 144.5 BB
CO: 100 BB
BTN: 164 BB
SB: 121.5 BB
Hero (BB): 111.5 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Ah Js
UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

Flop : (6.5 BB, 2 players) 2d Kd 3h
Hero checks, UTG checks

Turn : (6.5 BB, 2 players) Jc
Hero bets 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB

River : (12.5 BB, 2 players) 7h
Hero checks, UTG bets 8 BB, Hero calls 8 BB

UTG shows 9s 9d (One Pair, Nines)
(Pre 55%, Flop 75%, Turn 5%)

Hero shows Ah Js (One Pair, Jacks)
(Pre 45%, Flop 25%, Turn 95%)

Hero wins 27.5 BB



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